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Who Should We Be Cheering For, Really?
Intro I came across this post yesterday by GRiZZY19, and found myself nodding in agreement with most everything that was said. If you are too lazy to click a hyperlink and read, the TL;DR is that the Indians may be the least favorable playoff matchup for us. Oh, and if you are that lazy you probably want to skip to the meat of this post, too, or right to the TL;DR. This will probably take some time. Above all else, I'm a numbers guy. I imagine a lot of baseball fans are. It's a numbers-heavy sport. So I sought out some statistics to see if the 'eye test' was, in fact, accurate this time around. Noise Generally speaking, the more randomness there is in a game, the less often a better-quality opponent will defeat a lower-quality one due to variance. It follows, then, that in games with more randomness, a larger sample size is required to truly determine combatant quality. Perhaps a good real-life example of this is poker. There is definitively skill involved in Texas Holdem poker. It is a winnable game. But there is also a very large luck component. On any given day, someone with nearly no knowledge of the game could wipe out a table of experts. It could even happen a few sessions in a row. But, with enough time, and enough hands, the neophyte has no chance. Despite the tremendously numerous matchups in a given year of baseball, there is still a lot of randomness in baseball. Surprisingly so. Good thing, too, or why bother playing out the games? Where does this noise come from? A lot of things--but the bulk of it is good ole' luck. For the purpose of this post, and for the sake of brevity, let's round the luck component of noise to 100%. We will ignore the 'intangibles' and 'clutchness' that may have an effect, as the percentage is low enough to be too difficult to pick out--even over 140+ games of data. Wins and Losses If you are familiar with the nitty gritty of pythag & projected wins, just skip below to the meat. If you'd rather hear from an expert instead of a rando internet loon, try this primer instead (TRIGGER WARNING: 2003 article, Expos talk) For those still with me, let's start by saying there is a lot of noise in wins and losses, too. This should be pretty obvious, even without numbers. High-leverage situations are more important than low-leverage situations, sometimes substantially so. A bit of good luck in high-leverage situations (say, slightly better results in close games) and suddenly your record appears much better than it would be otherwise. Pythagorean expectation is an attempt to remove some of that noise. You may not have heard of Pythagorean expectation, but you've probably heard of run differential...especially because the Jays are #1 in this particular statistic. Run differential is pretty simple. Add up all the runs scored in a season, and all the runs allowed, and subtract. Pythagorean expectation uses run differential in a formula to calculate out expected wins and losses for a season at an attempt to remove some noise from the standings. But wait, I hear you say, why make the assumption that run differential should dictate 'real' wins and losses? Well, as our broadcasting team might put it, runs win games. At the core of it, that's actually true. And, assuming there is a lot of randomness in baseball (there is) and that players cannot get better at will (also mostly true), the timing of the runs have a component of randomness as well. The theory is, over a larger sample size, run differential is a decent way of determining team quality. It's far from perfect, but we have what we have. THE MEAT 1st Order Win Percentage In Baseball Prospectus parlance, 1st order win percentage is basic Pythagorean expectation. So, without further ado, here are the current standings based on run differential. I am adding images as well as links to ensure the information is valid at the time of posting. 1st Order Standings as of 2015-09-15 1st Order Standings (current) Current standings, based on 1st Order (Pythag) Wins.
Team
Division
1st Order Win %
Projected (Season)
Jays
East
0.635
103-59
Astros
West
0.583
94-68
Royals
Central
0.560
91-71
FUCKTHE Yankees
East
0.556
90-72
Orioles
East
0.523
85-77
Indians
Central
0.499
81-81
Twins
Central
0.495
80-82
Angels
West
0.493
80-82
A's
West
0.492
80-82
Rays
East
0.489
79-83
A few things stand out here. No, not literally--the bold font are the theoretical division winners. Obviously, the Jays. They are quite a bit above the rest of the pack (actually, tops in MLB). The Astros' record improves substantially as well. By contrast, the Royals record is substantially lower, with the lowest winning percentage of the 3 division winners. The WC race changes, too. The Orioles(!) are due for a WC game with the Yankees, with the rest of the chasers falling in a tight bunch around 0.500. But we can do a bit better than this. 2nd Order Win Percentage 1st order win percentage is a bit simplistic. 2nd order win percentage tries to get rid of some more randomness. How so? Well, it still uses the premise that 'runs win games', and that randomness is a primary cause of the distribution of runs. What are we missing? Well, the runs themselves have a component of randomness, too. A few inches can be the difference between a home run and a ball caught on the track; a line-drive double play or a double in the hole. So, 2nd order takes the statistics of a team, determines how many runs they should theoretically score, and then does a similar calculation as 1st order to determine a winning percentage. Yes, we are further removed from reality, but all in attempt to remove that rascally randomness in our samples. Here it gets interesting: 2nd Order Standings as of 2015-09-15 2nd Order Standings (current)
Team
Division
2nd Order Win %
Projected (Season)
Jays
East
0.609
99-63
Astros
West
0.603
98-64
Indians
Central
0.565
92-70
FUCKTHE Yankees
East
0.552
89-73
Royals
Central
0.529
86-76
Rays
East
0.525
85-77
A's
West
0.505
82-80
Red Sox
East
0.500
81-81
What a strange alternate dimension we have here. First thing of note--the Jays are closer to the pack. What does that mean? It means that though the Jays had 'bad luck' turning runs into wins, they've had 'good luck' at turning baserunners and opportunity into runs. In other words, they should have a lower run differential than they have, and as such they have a lower season record in these standings. The Astros have an even better record, and are essentially even with the Jays. But wait, what do we have here? Surprise, surprise--we have the Indians winning their division (by 6 games none the less!). The Royals just barely scraped by the Rays, of all teams, to land in the WC against the Yankees. Notably absent--the actual WC chasers in our dimension, like the Rangers, Angels and Twins. They are not on the above chart because they are 11th, 12th and dead last, respectively. It is not much of a surprise that no one in this sub is too worried about landing a postseason series with those teams. Baseruns This is Fangraph's version of 2nd order win percentage (well, kind of, but close enough for our purposes). It is calculated differently. I won't get into it here, but basically it is an attempt to remove randomness by ignoring the sequences in which events occur. Baseruns Standings as of 2015-09-15 Baseruns Standings (current)
Team
Division
Baseruns Win %
Projected (Season)
Jays
East
0.610
99-63
Astros
West
0.595
96-66
Indians
Central
0.543
88-74
FUCKTHE Yankees
East
0.551
89-73
Rays
East
0.526
85-77
Royals
Central
0.513
83-79
A's
West
0.513
83-79
Mariners
West
0.500
81-81
Not too dissimilar from 2nd order wins, at least near the top. Here, we have the Yankees playing the Rays in the WC, with the Royals missing the playoffs by 2 games. Yes, that is the Mariners in 8th and not a typo. TL;DR, AKA STFU By no means are these statistics infallible, but they do give us some good insight into the level of competition beyond glancing at the standings. The important points to take from all this?
The Astros and Jays are closely matched, at least in the regular season. They are also young. They may be the most dangerous matchup.
The Indians appear to be far more dangerous than their record indicates. There is certainly data to back up the theory that the Indians may indeed be a difficult matchup, or at least more difficult than most alternatives.
The Royals seem to be playing above their heads again. They did the same last year, though, and we saw how that ended up.
The Jays really are a cut above the competition. Regardless of whether they end up with home field advantage, they should be the favorite going into most any series.
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