Week 9 TNF Recap: Pretty standard game with the 49ers missing half their team. GB won easily and our lone wager is still alive for the Sunday games. Lets see what opportunities we have available to us this week! 🙂
Singles (u)
Parlays (u)
Teasers (Still live)
BBDLS (u)

SUNDAY GAMES

Seattle/Buffalo: Alrighty! First match up of the day and its my Super bowl predicted team. A West coast team traveling east for a 1pm game. Usually a look at the East coast team. However Seattle and Wilson are 18-6 in the last 24 1pm East coast starts, winning their last 10 in a row! The Seahawks have covered five of their last seven games and have won 10 of their last 12 games as a road favorite. In player news, "All-Pro Safety Jamal Adams, Seattle's biggest offseason acquisition, is expected to return Sunday after missing four games with a groin injury. Two-time Pro Bowl defensive end Carlos Dunlap is set to make his Seahawks debut after being acquired in a trade last week with Cincinnati and defensive tackle Damon "Snacks" Harrison, another former Pro Bowler, is close to being in game shape after being signed as a free agent.
On the other side, Buffalo is coming off a narrow divisional win vs New England and has only covered once in their last 5 games. "Bills center Mitch Morse was knocked out on the third play against the Patriots and remains in the concussion protocol. Receiver John Brown (knee), defensive end Jerry Hughes (foot) and cornerback Josh Norman (hamstring) have also missed practice time this week."
The Bills and Allen started the year hot with a 12-1 TD/INT ratio in the first 4 game. Only to throw a 4/4 ratio in the last 4 games.
There is great weather for a northeast game in November and with all the news and trends it would look like an easy spot to take SEA and the Over. The scary thing about committing to that is the MAJORITY of bets on this game are on SEA and the over...But, every time the line hits 3, it wont cross to 3.5 and most often doesnt stay at 3 for long. Also, the total opened at 55.5 but has RLM to as low as 54 in some books! The only other reason I can see for SEA possibly playing a flat game is that they just played 2 divisional games and after this have two more (one being the rematch of their only loss so far) With this game being non-conference AND SEA having it squeezed in between 4 divisional games, maybe I could see them spending more effort on the divisional games?
Either way, my algo has this as 27 24 SEA with the most favorable prop to target as Cole Beasley (SEA D is weak, but its WEAKEST point is vs slot receivers and WTF are these lines, 4.5 REC and 50 yards? Hes averaging 5 Rec and 60+ yards per game...)

DenveAtlanta: Next up we have a rather pointless game (for playoff implications). ATL is off a win on TNF and some extra rest. Denver is coming of a huge 2nd half comeback with a last second score to win a divisional home game as a dog. The Broncos are also 3-1 in their last 4 games, with their only loss to KC. (2-1 of those games came on the road). Atlanta hasn't won a game at home yet this year. My algo has this as a 24-26 ATL. I believe this game has potential to be one by BOTH teams. So, with the clearly better defense and catching more than 4, I think it's a good spot for DEN. Possibly a sprinkle game too! 😉

Chicago/Tennessee: This is the match-up of the pretenders. Two teams that the model is not sure if they are contenders or pretenders. CHI put in Foles when they were 3-0. Now they are 5-2. Their offense has got to find some continuity. Only averaging 20ppg it might be able to find some life vs a TEN defense that is quite suspect. They have made some changes recently and will be starting new pieces. Could be the perfect opportunity for Foles to get some stats on the sheet because TEN d-line has been very weak, rarely sacking opposing QBs this year. They will need every bit of Foles because the Bears run offense has been horrrrrible this year. Let's put it this way, TEN's Derrick Henry outrushes the Bears by himself on a per-game basis.
My algo has this as TEN -1 with a total of 50. Looks like I'll be leaning CHI on the bounce back.
Side note: I've said it before, ill mention it again. There's almost always an upset and it usually comes from the games that are 6/6.5 spread. Books seem to squeeze this in every week somehow to take care of people's teasers. This weeks candidates CHI, JAX, NYJ
Something interesting to note, majority of bets are on TEN yet the line hasn't moved from 6.5 to 7. . .

Detroit at Minnesota: Ehhhh, a very weird one. It has been off the board most of the week because we are not sure if Stafford is going to play. He is under a Covid protocal for close contact. He will be tested daily up until Sunday morning. If he is negative he will most likely play, if he tests positive he will obviously be out.
Outside of the Stafford storyline we have some revenge game stuff. Everson Griffen and AP returning to MIN, and I think MIN has some DET players now.
My algo has this as a Pickem being very game script dependent. I likes whoever gets a lead as it favors their defense to go for more on the pass rush.
I would say that Stafford being in will be the most important news to follow. If he is out I may look for a small teaser on MIN and the Under as I expect them to lean on Cook again. However, if Stafford plays I think this is a great spot to take the Lions and even a sprinkle on the money line.
Again, if Stafford is in I would look to some Lions props as MIN D is still a poopshow. With Galloday out, Look for Hall and Hockenson to get the extra targets. Also, if Stafford plays the Lion's have been coming out FIRE in the first quarter.
Check in the comments Sunday before game time to see who I took based upon the Stafford news.

Baltimore at Indianapolis: Back to back weeks Baltimore in a big AFC matchup. Last week was frustrating not only for us (BAL losing hurt) it was probably extremely frustrating for BAL. They outgained the Steelers nearly 2:1 in yards! They rushed on the Steelers Super AMAzeballs defense for over 250 yards! If not for FOUR very costly turnovers by Lamar, that would have been an ez BAL victory.
This is where it gets weird. When I compare the stats in my algo they are nearly identical and it spits out this game as a Pickem. However, something to note that I have not added in as weight on my algos calculations is strength of opponents. Which on wins, is not much for either team. However, on losses, they do have two common opponents (CLE and CIN). Both of which BAL SMASHED and one of which is INDys losses.(CLE)
Normally I would say this is a BAL all day game and if we see this match up in the playoffs I would most likely (barring some weird injury news) take BAL then. HOWEVER, this has been a weird week for BAL with like 7 defensive players on the COVID protocol list. To go with that, the whole BAL team has been restricted from practicing until SAT. Which means they got SAT practice in an have to travel to play tomorrow.
With all that said, this might be a game to contrary myself. However, with BAL being the more publicly bet team it might be more prudent to wait until closer to game time. Try to catch another +3 with IND or wait to take them at +2.5 in a teaser.

Carolina at Kansas City: CMC is back Baby! Haha. This should be a very interesting one. KC has been on a tear recently winning back to back games by more than 25. Carolina is off a tough primetime divisional loss to ATL last week that basically told you they don't want the last playoff spot.
Surprisingly my algo has this as 30-24 KC.
I am going to have to say this game will be largely dependent on CMCs health, productivity, and if CAR can keep pace or get a lead early. If so, KC does have the fourth-worst run defense in football with teams averaging 142.8 yards per game against them. AND even if they pull a lead, maybe there is some back door potential? CAR has only 1 loss this year by more than 10 points...

Houston at Jacksonville: Oh boy. . . Do you even wanna watch this game? Houston is coming off a bye and has had two weeks to prepare for a rematch against the team that gave them their only win this year. The difference in this game? JAX is starting a new 24 year old QB for his first start. And, they are giving him a defense that has given up at least 30 points in every game except one.
My algo has this as only HOU -4.5. However there is no adjustment in there for the QB change.
I expect JAX to help their fresh starting QB out as much as he can by giving the ball as much as they can to their RB. My algo marks this as a FANTASTIC spot to target Robinson in total yards rush+rec as not only will he have his normal workload against a horrible defense, but he will get the extra work that comes from the coaches trying to simplify the game for their QB.

NYG at Washington: Ugh, another dumpster fire game. NY played on Monday night and barely lost to the TB Bucs. Washington is off a bye. I want little to no part of this game. My algo has WAS as -2.5 but it also had WAS as -1 in the first match up. The NYG defense is on the rise and Danny Dimes seems to come out vs. the Washington Team. If anything, I would say WAS needs it more. They have one of the better chances to win the NFC East if they can pick up this game. (They have an easier back half of the schedule than most of the other teams)

LV at LAC: Sooo, LV is one of my favorite teams this year. I think they are building something real and I expect Gruden to take them deep in the playoffs in the next 3 years. Currently they are still in build mode, especially on defense, but Carr and the offense are starting to find some rhythms. Jacobs doesn't seem to be as good as his rookie year suggested but there's time to draft in that position. They are coming off a rough crap weather grind game vs. the Browns, where they came out the victor.
The Chargers also look like a great team for the future. I think once they get a change at head coach and redevelop their defense, they too could have something. They are coming off a last second comeback loss to the Broncos. Actually, they have been leading in most of their losses, only to give it up in the 4th. Herbert looks like a beast and his timing with Allen appears strong.
My algo has this as LAC -1 and I think this games about as coin flip as you can get. Both have above average offense and below average defense. I think I am going to lean LAC 1Q as they are home and have been coming out strong the last few games. However, if I catch this game live I will look to bet whoever's live spread gets 7+

Pittsburgh at Dallas: Not really feeling this is a game that has much value. PIT could easily blowout dallas 34-6. Dallas is about to start there 23 quarterback. Their D gives up 33+ per game. And oh btw, PIT is 7-0 with wins over the Titans and Ravens.
Why I won't take PIT is mostly the same reasoning. Dallas is starting an unknown at QB. DAL is 2-6 and PIT has a divisional game next week vs an opponent currently on a bye. This is PITs 3rd road game in a row. How much has the travel been wearing on the mental state.
I am just going to avoid this game.

Miami at Arizona: Well well well, looks like that MIA +3.5 play last week was good TUA TIME-ing! Seriously though, TUA did next to nothing in that game. Like almost 0. But that MIA defense.... WHOOO weeeeeeee
Both teams are coming into this game riding a 3 game winning streak. AZ is coming off a bye and has waayyyy the better offense. MIA comes into this game off a big upset vs the LA Rams and has a much better defense.
Again, I dont know if we can trust TUA yet. A home game vs a team traveling 3000 miles to play a 1pm start was tough enough. Now he has to travel across the country for his first road start? On a positive note, he will be playing indoors...
I think ill mostly avoid here.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTABALL

New Orleans at Tampa Bay: The matchup of the Day. NO comes into this game riding a 4 game winning streak. However it is important to note that 3 of those wins came against teams with a below .500 record and all 4 of the wins were by less then a TD.
TB comes into this game riding a 3 game win streak but their most recent win was on Monday night (short week) vs the Giants in which it was close all game and NY had a chance to send the game into OT. Not something you want to see. It could be that the team overlooked NY in preparation for this game. Knowing that winning their division is more important than a game vs the Giants.
We should see the debut of Antonio Brown in this one. Currently I have found him at +162 to score a TD and +1200 to score the first TD. Might throw a free bet on one of those just for a fun sweat.

New England at NYJ: Not going to lie, this was going to be my upset of the year. Pats having almost 0 offensive weapons outside of Cams run game. Jets only real strength is stopping the run. Pats D is NOT what we are used to. The amount of missed tackles happing has to make Bellichek SICK. Darnold, at home, with the probably better defense, catching over a TD?!
However, Darnold now appears to be out. I still think NY has good EV to cover, especially with the extra FG, as both teams should struggle to put u any points. However, the upset just feels so much harder as Flacco is VERY low raked in my algo's QB index.

Singles (52-65, -19.01u)

Cole Beasley 50.5 Rec Yards Over (3.15u to win 3u)
DEN +4.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
DEN ml (2u to win 3.5u)
Noah Fant 4.5 Rec Over (1.4u to win 1u)
Jerry Judy 47.5 Rec Yards Over (2.8u to win 2u)
CHI +6.5 (2u to win 2u)
CHI TT 20 Over (2.1u to win 2u)
Allen Robinson 72.5 Rec Yards Over (1.11u to win 1u)
DET 1Q +0.5 (FB to win 2.12u)
DET +3.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
Will Fuller anytime TD (FB to win 3.3u)
Brandin Cooks 4.5 Rec Over (1u to win 1u)
James Robinson 22.5 Rec Yards Over (3.45u to win 3u)
James Robinson 102.5 Rush and Rec Yards Over (1.2u to win 1u)
James Robinson 3.5 Rec Over (1.5u to win 1u)
Terry McLaurin 72.5 Rec Yards Over (2.3u to win 2u)
LAC 1Q ml (2.4u to win 2.04u)
Keenan Allen 6.5 Rec Over (2.5u to win 2u)
Keenan Allen 75.5 Rec Yards Over (2.4u to win 2u)
Kyler Murray 40.5 Rush Yards Over (2.8u to win 2u)
Antonio Brown 1st TD scorer (2u to win 22u) Promo, if he scores not the first TD, but any other TD, the bet is returned.

Using up some free bets this week. They are long parlays and BBDLS so I am not going to type them all out. If something hits or is sweating into SNF, I will post.
Parlays (6-20, +43.76u)

CHI +6, WAS, ml, HOU ml (2u to win 6.22u)
DEN ml, SEA ml, TB ml (2u to win 12.24u)
CHI +6.5, DEN ml, SEA ml, CAR +10, LAC +3.5, PIT ml, TB ml (2.5u to win 97.83u)
I have a few parlays in for another 2.6u and some Free Bets.

Teasers (1-2, +16.35u)

GB pk***,*** DEN +10.5 (FB to win 11.03u)

BBDLS (0-41, -33.99u)

I have 1.7u of BBDLS in and some FB wagers.

MAC is going to get it done the way it's supposed to be done tonight, our NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAY - (VMI +16 vs FURMAN -16)

32 Teams/32 Days: Day 14: The Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers

Division: NFC North
Record: 7-9 (2-4 Division) (3rd in NFC North)
Last season's post.

Introduction

In 2016, the Packers went 10-6 and kept the dream alive all the way to the NFC Championship Game. In 2017, the Packers went 7-9 and missed the playoffs for the first time in a decade. Get out your black light and latex gloves -- we have a murder mystery on our hands. Who killed the Packers' season?

Statistics

The elephant in the room that was Green Bay's 2017 season was that they trotted out one of the worst starters in the league for 10 games. Note the stark differences between the Packers with Rodgers and the Packers with Hundley:
Offense

Category	Stat (Rank)	W/Rodgers	W/Hundley
Offensive DVOA	0.4% (15th)	-	-
Points/Game	19.5 (21st)	25.7 (5th)	15.2 (30th)
Yards/Game	305.7 (26th)	344.5 (13th)	282.4 (31st)
Yards/Play	4.9 (22nd)	5.7 (8th)	4.4 (32nd)
Turnovers	25 (T-23rd)	24.0 prorated (T-22nd)	25.6 prorated (26th)
Pass DVOA	-1.4% (25th)	-	-
Pass Yards/Game	198.0 (25th)	248.2 (9th)	167.8 (32nd)
Net Pass Yards/Attempt	5.2 (30th)	5.8 (19th)	4.8 (32nd)
Interceptions	18 (T-28th)	16.0 prorated (T-25th)	19.2 prorated (30th)
Rush DVOA	10.1% (4th)	-	-
Rush Yards/Game	107.8 (17th)	96.3 (27th)	114.6 (15th)
Rush Yards/Attempt	4.5 (4th)	4.5 (3rd)	4.4 (7th)
Fumbles Lost	7 (T-12th)	8.0 prorated (T-14th)	6.4 prorated (12th)

With Rodgers -- including the Carolina game, where he came back too early and threw 3 picks in a game for the first time since 2009 -- the Packers looked roughly like a top-10 offense. With Hundley, they were somewhere between the 30th- and 32nd-"best" offense.
Defense

Category	Stat (Rank)	W/Rodgers	W/Hundley
Defensive DVOA	4.9% (20th)	-	-
Points Allowed/Game	23.1 (30th)	21.5 (21st)	24.1 (31st)
Yards Allowed/Game	348.9 (22nd)	332.2 (16th)	358.9 (27th)
Yards Allowed/Play	5.5 (25th)	5.5 (24th)	5.5 (25th)
Turnovers	22 (T-13th)	24.0 prorated (12th)	20.8 prorated (19th)
Pass Defense DVOA	21.6% (26th)	-	-
Pass Yards Allowed/Game	236.8 (23rd)	205.8 (6th)	255.4 (31st)
Opp Pass Yards/Attempt	6.9 (29th)	6.4 (21st)	7.2 (30th)
Interceptions	11 (T-20th)	8.0 prorated (T-28th)	12.8 prorated (18th)
Rush Defense DVOA	-13.0% (8th)	-	-
Rush Yards Allowed/Game	112.1 (17th)	126.3 (29th)	103.5 (8th)
Rush Yards Allowed/Attempt	3.9 (9th)	4.3 (24th)	3.6 (5th)
Fumbles Recovered	11 (T-7th)	18.7 prorated (1st)	6.4 prorated (22nd)

Broadly speaking, the defense also played significantly worse with Hundley at the helm. With Rodgers, it was a slightly below-average unit (20th in DVOA, 21st in points, 16th in yards). With Hundley, it took off like Sunny Bono down a ski slope (31st in points, 27th in yards).
General

Category	Stat (Rank)	W/Rodgers	W/Hundley
Point Differential	-64 (23rd)	+48 prorated (11th)	-131 prorated (29th)
Pythagorean Wins	6.2 (22nd)	8.9 (14th)	4.7 (29th)
Opponent Win %	0.539 (T-5th)	0.531 (T-8th)	0.544 (3rd)
Overall DVOA	-3.3% (17th)	-	-
Special Teams DVOA	1.3% (14th)	-	-

The million-dollar question of our murder mystery is: Was Rodgers was propping up a bad team, or was Hundley dragging down a pretty good team? Is Hundley the killer, for licking more ass than Two Tone Malone? Or did Ted Thompson shoot the roster full of holes, only for Mike McCarthy to drive the getaway car into the ditch because Dom Capers failed to stop it? We'll revisit this as we go through the regular season, but let's do an autopsy on the team, first.

Draft Picks

"Overall" numbers are approximate after the 3rd round due to compensatory picks, which could be announced as soon as today. Right now Overthecap.com projects that the Packers will receive 1 additional 3rd round pick, plus 3 more 5th rounders.

Round	Pick	Overall
1	14	14
2	13	45
3	12	76
4	14	~110
5	13	~141
6	12	~172
7	14	~206

Upcoming Free Agents

The "Projected Market Value" for our biggest free agent, Morgan Burnett, is from Spotrac.com (see link for more information on comparable players/contracts). The projected values for Brooks, House, Evans, Goode, and Dial are simply the values of the one-year deals they all signed in 2017; none of them wildly over- or under-performed their paper.
DickRod's projected value is based on Ed Dickson's (get it?) current deal, which happens to be somewhere between the value of Mychal Rivera's 2017 deal with the Jags and Dennis Pitta's 2014 deal with the Ravens. All three started their careers with roughly DickRod's level of production, and signed their comp deals around DickRod's current age.
All other players will likely sign for at or near the league minimum.

Player	Position	FA Type¹	Projected Market Value
Morgan Burnett	S	UFA	4 yrs, $9.8 million AAV
Ahmad Brooks	OLB	UFA	1 yr, $3.5 million AAV
Davon House	CB	UFA	1 yr, $2.8 million AAV
Jahri Evans	G	UFA	1 yr, $2.3 million AAV
Quinton Dial	DE	UFA	1 yr, $0.8 million AAV
DickRod	TE	UFA	3 yrs, $2.0 million AAV
Brett Goode	LS	UFA	-
Ulrick John	T	UFA	-
Demetri Goodson	CB	UFA	-
Jeff Janis	WR	UFA	-
Joe Thomas	ILB	RFA	-
Jacob Schum	P	RFA	-
Joe Kerridge	FB	ERFA	-
Gerronimo Allison	WR	ERFA	-
Joe Callahan	QB	ERFA	-
Justin McCray	G	ERFA	-
Jermaine Whitehead	S	ERFA	-
Lucas Patrick	C	ERFA	-
Taybor Pepper	LS	ERFA	-
Donatello Brown	CB	ERFA	-
Michael Clark Duncan	WR	ERFA	-
Adam Pankey	G	ERFA	-
Herb Waters	WR	ERFA	-

¹ "UFA" = "Unrestricted Free Agent," "RFA" = "Restricted Free Agent," and "ERFA" = "Exclusive-Rights Free Agent." It's easiest to retain ERFAs, a bit harder to retain RFAs, and significantly harder to retain UFAs. More information on the distinctions can be found here.

Potential Free Agent Losses

Morgan Burnett
This is the one player that would be a significant loss. Take a look at his career numbers alongside one well-regarded peer:

Name	Games	INTs	Deflections	FFs	Sacks	Tackles	TDs
Morgan Burnett	102	9	46	8	7.5	511	1
Mystery Player A	109	12	50	9	2.0	434	0

Both players have been similarly durable (each entered the league in 2010). "Mystery Player A" has a few more picks, but Burnett has more sacks and tackles. Burnett is himself, and Mystery Player A is... Kam Chancellor. I'm not going to die on the "Burnett is better" hill, but the two are at least in the same ballpark. Burnett also moonlights at ILB and CB in certain subpackages (apparently playing the latter quite well), handles a majority of pre-snap signal calling, and is one of the longest-tenured members of the defense.
He's also 29, plays a position where losing a step can be a huge liability, missed a quarter of 2017 due to injury, and in 2018 only graded out as "average" at Pro Football Focus. One intriguing option is the franchise tag, which next year is estimated to be around $11 million for safeties (compare this to the projected $9.8 million AAV of a long-term deal). A one-year tag would also allow potential replacement Josh Jones (a '17 draft pick) to grow a bit more before being thrust into a larger role.
Ahmad Brooks, Davon House, and Jahri Evans
These guys all fall squarely in the "nice to have" category. None of these players lit the world on fire, but they were all reliable, capable players -- every team can use a few cogs like that. Brooks (1.5 sacks on 346 snaps, "average" per PFF), House (great in coverage through most of the year), and Evans (3 penalties, 3.5 sacks allowed, "average" per PFF) all played well enough to earn NFL contracts in 2018, and the Packers could use them all back on modest, one-year deals. On one hand, there's a real value to shoring up the roster with veterans that don't break the bank -- not everyone on the roster can be a superstar, and there are some roster spots where "average" is acceptable. On the other hand, the team can't pay everyone veteran money, the performance of these players isn't that far above what could be expected from a draft pick/UDFA/second-year player, and every time the team keeps a Davon that means potentially cutting the next Tramon Williams or Sam Shields.
Quinton Dial
Dial did not stand out on the stat sheet (0 sacks, 12 tackles on <30% of defensive snaps) and graded out as "poor" on PFF. He's a backup who drew minimal FA interest last season. As he was a step down from even the modest production of the Brooks/House/Evans group, he falls into the "move on and give his snaps to a fresh face" bucket.
DickRod
DickRod is probably not worth even the modest $2.0 million AAV contract he's projected to earn. He's not a notably good blocker, he isn't particularly good after the catch, and he can't stretch the field. His hands are his best asset, and even they aren't anything special -- of the 54 tight ends who've had 100+ targets since DickRod sprung into the league, he ranks 26th in catch percentage. If signed he would get the short end of a timeshare with Lance Kendricks, who we're already paying to be an unspectacular veteran presence. I think a ton of TEs could match DickRod's production with Rodgers at the helm, and he doesn't bring enough or play a crucial enough position to warrant the cap space and roster spot it'd take to hold on to him.
Jeff Janis
I'll never forget the '15 Divisional round against the Cardinals. Dude had 145 yards and 2 TDs, including 101 yards on two Hail Marys during the last drive of regulation to send the game into overtime. He didn't even have the common courtesy to tell Pat Peterson "bite the pillow" before going in dry, but then goddamn Larry Fitzgerald power bottomed right back in OT. I turned the TV off, went straight to the White Horse Saloon, drank a bottle of cheap whiskey, vaguely remember the band playing "Eastbound and Down" at closing time, ate about a dozen street tacos, then stumbled back to my hotel and drug my ass out of bed 4 hours later for a meeting. Good times.
I love Jeff Janis, and sometimes if you love something you have to not even bring it back for the minimum because a good special teams gunner who isn't going to grow into anything more isn't worth a roster spot. Keeping him in 2018 might mean cutting the next Donald Driver.
Everyone Else
The team's remaining UFAs will come back for the minimum if they come back at all, so they don't warrant much discussion. Bring them to camp, let them earn a spot. Joe Thomas (the ILB) probably won't draw a lot of attention from other teams as a RFA, so he should be brought into camp cheap as well. Jake Schum (P), the other RFA, might be worth a minimal investment to keep around -- he's not exceptional, but he's adequate and could grow into above average. I expect us to retain all of our ERFAs, because they're all essentially on cheap team options.

2017 -- Look Back At It

Preseason Expectations
At the end of the 2016 season, CB and RB were top needs, with some concern about ILB play, TE, and the pass rush.

CB: After Sam Shields went down early in the year the team was forced to roll with second-year men Ladarius Gunter, Damarious Randall, and Quinten Rollins. Including the postseason, they gave up passer ratings of 112.4, 113.4, and 133.8, respectively. Despite his sky-high passer rating against, Rollins earned the best PFF grade of the group... at 58.1, or "poor." Gunter and especially Randall were significantly lower, and yet they were still better than the various practice squad guys we trotted out late in the season. Micah Hyde moonlighted a bit at corner, but didn't play there primarily and still only qualified as "average." Coming into 2017, even with the free agent addition of Davon House and a high 2nd-rounder spent on Kevin King, the entire position group was a question mark.
RB: Despite a few impressive yards/attempt showings (5.1 for Eddie Lacy, 5.9 for Ty Montgomery) no Green Bay running back eclipsed 500 rushing yards in 2016. Between injuries and ineffectiveness the team gave 246 carries to the likes of 30-year-old James Starks, Christine Michael, Knile Davis, and Don Jackson, plus assorted FBs and WRs. Montgomery appeared to be the best option by the end of the year, but outside of a casual fist-fucking of the Bears (162 yards, 10.1 yards/attempt, 2 TDs) he only had two other games with 50+ yards on the ground. General Manager Ted Thompson added 3 backs through the draft coming into 2017, but none were taken higher than the 4th round.
ILB: This position had been a concern since before AJ Hawk left, back before the 2015 season. 2016 rookie Blake Martinez was expected to make an impact early, but he wound up playing just 43% of defensive snaps, including less than 25% of defensive snaps in each of the last three regular season games. The consensus was that he had tailed off or gotten into the coaches' doghouse. He, along with fellow ILBs Jake Ryan and Joe Thomas, remained unproven after 2016. Despite no standout in the position group, no ILBs were added through the draft or free agency heading into 2017.
TE: As noted above, DickRod has never been bad, but he's never been good at anything, either. He's the type of player who's OK as a backup if he's cheap, but if you have him as a starter he's on the upgrade list. DickRod had played all 16 games in 2016, and wound up with about as many targets and exactly as many receptions as the talented (but injured and ultimately overhyped) Jared Cook. Teddy T swapped out Cook for Martellus Bennett before 2017 in what was perceived at the time as an upgrade.
Pass rush: Although the team tied for 6th in the league with 40 sacks in 2016, the only Packer with 10+ sacks was Nick Perry, who had an injury-plagued history and who had never come up with more than 4 sacks in a season before. The team's second-leading sack artist, Julius Peppers, left for Carolina after 2016. Clay Matthews -- the only other Packer that year with 5+ sacks -- had just 5 sacks, and had just turned 30. The front office added 3rd-round DT Montravius Adams, 4th-round OLB Vince Biegel, and 33-year-old free agent Ahmad Brooks to shore up the group heading into 2017, but concerns lingered.

Nonetheless, the 8-game "Run the Table" streak that took Green Bay to the 2016 NFC Championship Game ensured that preseason expectations were right up there with the best of the NFL. Six Sports Illustrated writers had Green Bay in the Super Bowl, and two others had them in the NFC Championship Game. All seven writers at CBSsports.com had the Packers winning the NFC North, and three had them in the Super Bowl. ESPN was similarly rosy, projecting that Green Bay would go 12-4. Oh, my sweet summer child.
Regular Season Recap

Packers vs. Seahawks, W 17-9. With the stage set, let's go through the victim's last moments. The Packers opened the year with a tough home win against Seattle. Despite a halting game from the offense, the D balled out and kept Lore and Co. out of the endzone. Recently departed Eddie Lacy runs for a whopping 3 yards on 5 carries; he goes on to average just 2.6 yards/attempt on the year despite averaging 5.1 yards/attempt in 2016 with Green Bay (and very publicly meeting Seattle's offseason weight goals). Is this a (raging) clue that the Packers' offensive line is actually pretty good, or just further evidence that Seattle's line blows? Maybe it's both?
Packers @ Falcons, L 23-34. The Falcons jump out to a 31-7 lead, and they're shitting their pants. At first it's just a little squeak from between clenched cheeks when the announcers first bring up 28-3. But then Rodgers starts to go off -- he finishes with 343 yards passing, and the Falcons finish soaking through their shorts. The announcers keep bringing up 28-3. Ty Montgomery keeps squirting through holes en route to 110 yards (on 16 carries) from scrimmage and 2 TDs. The Falcons keep furiously squirting hot lava. The announcers keep hammering 28-3. Matt Bryant has died of dysentery. Is there a (raging) clue here about shitty defense? Is allowing 27 defensive points (7 came from an Atlanta fumble return for a TD) to a team that averaged 33.8 points per game in 2016 that bad, or does shit like that just happen in the modern NFL?
Packers vs. Bengals, W (OT) 27-24. Again we see the Packers go down early, falling behind 21-7 after Rodgers' first career pick six. The defense locks up, and Green Bay is able to tie it up and then (finally) get Rodgers a win in OT. At this point close observers were starting to worry about Ty Montgomery -- through this game he had just 124 rushing yards while averaging almost exactly 3.0 yards/attempt. Had the front office adequately addressed the RB position in the offseason? Is the line just not good enough?
Packers vs. Bears, W 35-14. According to Pro Football Reference, the Packers had a 94.3% chance of winning with 9:49 on the clock... in the first quarter. Rodgers chipped in 4 TDs (on just 179 yards passing!), Aaron Jones sees his first significant action (49 yards on 13 carries, 1 TD), and Chicago coughs up 4 turnovers. The calm before the storm.
Packers @ Cowboys, W 35-31. In a troublingly familiar pattern, the Packers are down 21-6 halfway through the 2nd quarter. In addition to Rodgers posting a sterling 122.9 passer rating, the comeback happens because of two breakout games. First, Aaron Jones goes for 125 and a TD on 19 carries, treating Dallas linebackers like Ezekiel Elliot treats Dallas DJs. Second, Damarious Randall -- coming off a awful sophomore season, coming off getting benched against Mike Fellatiating Glennon the week before -- comes up with a pick six and some clutch coverage down the stretch. We're also seeing the rise of Davante Adams (7 for 66 and 2 TDs) and the fall of Jordy Nelson (2 for 24 and 1 TD). The (raging) clues here point to a pretty decent supporting cast for Rodgers.
Packers @ Vikings, L 10-23. Aw, fuck. Rodgers gets railed (with gawd as my witness he's broken in half!), Hundley gets railed (39.6 passer rating!), Jones comes back to earth (41 yards on 13 carries), and Monty continues his poor start (28 yards on 10 carries). Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, shooting up and listening to "The End" on a loop. The defense didn't play bad overall (23 points allowed; the Vikings would average 23.9 for the season) but Hundley sure didn't get a ton of help from the rest of the offense.
Packers vs. Saints, L 17-26. Hundley plays awful -- 39.9 passer rating, 87 passing yards -- but the defense plays reasonably well (gives up 26; the Saints average 28.0 on the year) and Jones comes to play (131 yards and a TD on 17 carries). The Packers actually have a 52.5% chance of winning early in the 4th quarter. At this point it looks like if Hundley can improve a little, and if we can ride Jones for a stretch, and if the defense keeps playing OK we might be able to hang in there. I think this perspective (and a general lack of quality backup options) is what kept the front office/coaching staff from picking up another QB over the upcoming bye week. At the same time, this game is squarely on Hundley -- he had the run game working, the defense wasn't getting torched, but he couldn't even move the ball 100 yards in the air.
Packers vs. Lions, L 17-30. After an extra week of preparation, Hundley plays... reasonably well. 245 yards passing and an 86.0 passer rating is a huge improvement over the Saints game. That performance probably would have won the Saints game. The problem is A) the defense gets lit up and B) the run game fails to show up. This wasn't a game where it's close throughout and a late Lions TD makes the score look worse; this is a game where the Packers were down 10, then 17, then 20 before scoring a garbage time TD of their own to make it look more respectable. Based solely (raging) clue is now pointing towards the roster not offering enough support for the QB. No 40-yard rusher, no 60-yard receiver.
Packers @ Bears, W 23-16. It's a bad situation. The team is 4-4, headed to the Illinois Bears, and the Mitch Brutitsky has replaced the giraffe. Everyone is looking forward at the schedule -- Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Cleveland -- and wondering how likely a 3-1 record over that stretch is if Chicago wins today. Hundley takes another step forward -- 110.7 passer rating, 212 yards, 1 TD -- and after Jones goes down with an ACL sprain Jamaal Williams and Monty combine for 142 yards from scrimmage. Adams shows up (5 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD), too, and while the defense gives up almost 297 yards and a big TD late, it locks down in crunch time and holds on for the win. This is the blueprint that was envisioned after the Saints game: Passable passing, a strong run game, solid enough defense. No one is calling for Hundley's head at this point (why would they?) and it's back to looking like he has enough tools around him to make this thing work.
Packers vs. Ravens, L 0-23. Just when everything was going so well, Hundley craps out a 4-turnover game. He moved the ball alright (239 yards), Williams ran hard against a good defensive front (95 yards from scrimmage), and Adams brought his fistin' shoes (8 catches for 126 yards)... the turnovers were just insurmountable. The Ravens kicked field goals after drives starting on the Packers' 29 and 30, and scored a TD after a drive starting on the Packers' 3. That's all but 10 of the Ravens' points that the offense gifted them. A cleaner offensive game would have been highly winnable -- it was only 0-6 at the half -- but Hundley just didn't have it. He had plenty of help; Hundley's starting to look like the season killer.
Packers @ Steelers, L 28-31. Aaaaand he's back -- 245 yards, 3 TDs, 134.3 passer rating. He got a lot of help from Williams (135 yards from scrimmage, 2 TDs) and some big catches from Adams (5 catches, 82 yards, 1 TD), but Hundley played about as good of game as he could against a legitimate opponent on the road. This is one reason why the front office/coaching staff never picked up another QB -- every time Hundley shat the bed, he'd follow it up with a "huh, maybe he can do it" performance. The defense didn't play well, but they did keep three Hall of Famers from running away with the game. This is another loss where the team had a legitimate shot to win; another (raging) clue that the roster isn't all that bad. Bad rosters wind up in a lot more blowouts.
Packers vs. Buccaneers, W (OT) 26-20. Plenty of help from the running game (113 rush yards and a TD from Williams, a walk-off 20-yard TD from Jones in OT) and the defense turned in a winnable performance (7 sacks, a turnover, 20 points allowed, clutch stop late). Hundley forgot how to pass again (84 yards, 48.3 passer rating) but was a huge factor on the ground during the last two scoring drives (39 of his 66 rushing yards came after 6:00 left in the 4th). This is reason number two why the Packers didn't bring in another QB -- even when he couldn't pass, he could still run to the tune of 7.5 yards/attempt over the course of the season.
Packers @ Browns, W (OT) 27-21. The trap game of all trap games. The winless Browns, late in the season, playing a team with a backup QB. No one knows what to expect of Hundley at this point -- is he going to be Steelers Hundley or Buccaneers Hundley? Despite yet another slow start -- a flashback-inducing 7-21 deficit heading into the 4th -- he wound up with a 111.2 passer rating on 265 yards and 3 TDs. He even chipped in 31 yards on the ground to compliment Williams' 118 all-purpose yards and 2 TDs, and Adams further solidified his role on the team with 10 catches for 84 yards and 2 TDs. The return game even came to life with a key 65-yard punt return to set up the tying score. The defense struggled early but pitched a shutout in the 4th quarter and OT, including a pick that gave the offense the ball in Cleveland territory on the final drive. Pretty? No, but it got the job done. Isn't that what good teams do? How often do bad teams get big picks to ice the game, or pull out 60+ yard punt returns when it's late and close? We keep seeing example after example of the team getting itself in a position to win, which does an awful lot to exonerate the front office and coaching staff. And ultimately, the roster and coaching staff were good enough to keep the ship afloat long enough for Rodgers to have something to come back to. Isn't that the primary goal of any team who's forced to start their backup?
Packers @ Panthers, L 24-31. And just like that, it's gone. Rodgers played well all things considered, but he clearly was physically limited, and that resulted in 3 uncharacteristic turnovers. That makes all the difference in a one-score game. What's important to our mystery of "who killed the Packers season?" is how the rest of the team played, and if they folded when playing with a clearly reduced Rodgers (71.5 passer rating). Williams and Jones combined for an efficient 77 rush yards on 13 carries, two receivers went over 70 yards, and three different players caught a TD pass. The special teams unit pulled out an onside kick when everyone in the stadium knew it was coming, and Rodgers was able to march into Carolina territory before a Geronimo Allison fumble iced the game. Again, non-QB parts of the team stepping up and giving a limited passer an opportunity to win. My (raging) clue is pointed pretty solidly towards Hundley at this point.
Packers vs. Vikings, L 0-16. With playoff hopes eliminated, the Packers decided to tank. They shut down their MVP-caliber QB, and who knows how many other medical decisions suddenly became far more cautious because there was nothing to play for. Still, another winnable game. It was 10-0 at the half, and the Vikings' last field goal was gifted to them after a drive that started on the Green Bay 14; the essentially gave up just 13 to an offense that averaged 24 in the regular season. Had Hundley had a passer rating above 30.2 maybe the Packers could have stayed in it. His hands are looking pretty bloody.
Packers @ Lions, L 11-35. 113 combined yards from Williams, 59.7 passer rating from Hundley. The defense got shredded through the air (140.4 passer rating for Stafford), but the offense never really gave the team a chance, either. A bad game all around, but hey, they were tanking.

Regular Season Summary
What's to make of all of this? Hundley was the killer, with the turnover, in the stadium. The rest of the team -- even the defense, which wasn't great by any stretch -- played well enough to win most games. Competent (not great) QB play could have potentially turned both shutouts and the Saints game into wins, and it could have given the Packers a puncher's chance in the less-competitive contests. Hundley and his 70.6 passer rating let the team down more than the team let Hundley down.

New Addition Review/Statuses

Martellus Bennett, TE
Free agent acquisition, released just 7 games into a 3-year contract. Did not score a TD, did not stretch the field (9.7 yards/reception), was on pace for just 533 yards. Fans said he was a great blocker, but the team's run and pass blocking didn't seem to suffer too much after he left, and "he's a great blocker" is notoriously hard to quantify. The warning signs were there, the risk was probably worth it, but the team got burned. This happens as often as not with big-name free agents. Picked up by Patriots, put on IR shortly after.
Lance Kendricks, TE
Free agent acquisition. 203 yards, 1 TD, 11.3 yards/reception. Not a huge impact, but flashed some good speed and made a few big plays (one 50+ yard reception, two more 20+ yard receptions). Signed for one more year at a reasonable price ($2.25 million cap hit for 2018). Makes sense to keep for a team that needs downfield weapons.
Ahmad Brooks, OLB
Free agent acquisition. Dinged up a bit (missed 4 games) but added a little pass rush at a position where the team can use all the help it can get. Currently a free agent.
Davon House, CB
Free agent acquisition. Graded out highly in coverage per PFF but received a "poor" overall grade from the same source. Either he's fine playing the receiver but struggles mightily in run support or PFF's grades don't quite add up. I'm going for a little of both. My general impression from watching him, reading about him, and the demand for him around the league is that he's fine, but not a player teams want to rely heavily on. It's OK if he's your third guy; it's not OK if he's your #1. Currently a free agent.
Jahri Evans, G
Free agent acquisition. By all accounts handled himself capably. "Average" PFF grade. Currently a free agent.
Ricky Jean Francois, DL
Free agent acquisition. Played sparingly (<6% of eligible snaps) and did not make an impact, released after 6 games, picked up by the Patriots. Currently a free agent.
Quinton Dial, DL
Free agent acquisition. Backup NT (<30% of eligible snaps), did not fill stat sheet, did not jump off the screen.
Kevin King, CB
Draft pick, 33rd overall. Played 9 games, 21 tackles, 5 deflections, 0 INTs, allowed a 102.9 passer rating when targeted, received "poor" grade from PFF. Saw heavy snaps when healthy, placed on IR mid-season. Underwent shoulder surgery. Question mark going forward.
Josh Jones, S
Draft pick, 61st overall. Played 16 games, 56 tackles, 5 deflections, 1 INT, 2 sacks, played about 70% of eligible snaps, received "poor" grade from PFF. Moonlighted a bit at ILB, potentially being groomed as Morgan Burnett's replacement. Looked beat sometimes on tape, but also made some plays. Question mark going forward.
Montravius Adams, DT
Draft pick, 93rd overall. Played sparingly in 7 games, 1 tackle. Foot injury sidelined him for beginning of season. Question mark going forward.
Vince Biegel, OLB
Draft pick, 108th overall. Played 9 games after foot injury early in season. 7 tackles. Question mark going forward.
Jamaal Williams, RB
Draft pick, 134th overall. Tough runner, above-average receiver. Finished with 556 rushing yards and 262 receiving yards, but had a concerningly low 3.6 yards/attempt. Will likely be contest between him and Aaron Jones for the starting job in 2018.
DeAngelo Yancy, WR
Draft pick, 175th overall. Did not take regular season snap with Packers. Cut, signed to practice squad. Question mark going forward.
Aaron Jones, RB
Draft pick, 182nd overall. Explosive runner, did not show much as a receiver. Finished with 448 rushing yards and just 22 receiving yards. Averaged a robust 5.5 yards/attempt. Will likely be contest between him and Jamaal Williams for the starting job in 2018.
Kofi Amichia, OL
Draft pick, 212th overall. Did not take regular season snap with Packers. Cut, signed to practice squad. Question mark going forward.
Devante "Billy" Mays, RB
Draft pick, 238th overall. Got in doghouse with 2 fumbles, only received 7 touches on the year. Question mark going forward.
Malachi Dupre, WR
Draft pick, 247th overall. Did not take regular season snap with Packers. Cut, signed to Buffalo Bills practice squad.

Coaching Staff Review

The Packers have almost completely overhauled their coaching staff. You can compare the 2017 coaching staff to the 2018 vintage in as much detail as you like. I'll highlight a few of the most impactful changes.
Mike Pettine replaces Dom Capers as Defensive Coordinator
The pros of the Pettine hire are enticing. He's had highly-ranked defenses in the past, going all the way back to his days as a position coach in Baltimore. He coached up not only All Pro and HOF-caliber talent, but he also got useful seasons out of journeymen. No former players or coworkers have anything negative to say about him, and Rex Ryan thinks he'll be the best coordinator in the league. He was regarded highly enough to get a head coaching offer, and has been consulting with the Seahawks this past year.
The cons of the Pettine hire are concerning. His highly-ranked defenses came almost entirely under Rex Ryan, so there's a legitimate question of who was more responsible for the unit's success. His past defenses also were stacked with great talent, and there's no Ed Reed/Darrelle Revis/Ray Lewis/Terrell Suggs to anchor his scheme in Green Bay. While he received a head coaching job with the Browns, he was apparently not a name other teams were interested in, and it appears that the Browns hiring process was rushed. And while he had quality talent on defense in Cleveland, his second year there the defense fell apart. He hasn't coached at any level for the last two seasons, which begs the question of if he's such a great DC, why weren't teams falling over themselves to snatch him up in 2016 and 2017?
Joe Philbin replaces Edgar Bennett as Offensive Coordinator
McCarthy calls the plays and is heavily involved in the offense, and Philbin, who coached in Green Bay before, is presumably not bringing too many new ideas. This may be a case of going back to what worked before, but if what worked before was so great, and Philbin was such a big part of it, why has he only been coaching the Indy offensive line for the past two years? This smells like a cosmetic, ass-covering move, but it's possible that it's rooted in personal relationships and getting the "right guys" in the meeting rooms and on the field.
James Campen retained as OL Coach
The Packers have an excellent track record over the last few seasons at turning mid- to late-round offensive linemen in to productive pros. Campen is likely a part of that, and I'm glad to see him sticking around.
Joe Whitt, Jr. retained as Defensive Pass Game Coordinator
Joe Whitt was formerly a secondary coach with the Packers, and under him we've seen a number of young prospects stall out in recent years. He's had past success, but it seems curious that he's getting a promotion when his last few proteges have developed unevenly, or not at all.

Free Agency/Draft Concerns

The "need" hierarchy is (1) would need to make a unit average if the roster is healthy and performs well, (2) would need to make a unit good if the roster is healthy and performs well, (3) backups for injury risk positions, (4) backups for positions without significant injury risk.

CB: Still have multiple below-average corners we're relying on for heavy snaps. Must upgrade to improve defense.
OLB: Clay Matthews is aging, Nick Perry has a long injury history. If they stay healthy they're a good duo, but that's a hell of an if. The time to plan for the future is now, and you can never have too many pass rushers.
WR: Adams is the only receiver on the roster who has a definite long-term future in Green Bay. The team has sorely missed a deep threat since Jordy's injury sapped his breakaway speed, and a guy who can stretch the field vertically is the difference between MVP Rodgers and merely great Rodgers.
TE: Maybe Lance Kendricks will have a big year with a season in Green Bay, more opportunities, and a healthy Rodgers, but he was available cheap for a reason. He's never been hugely productive and he's 30. No one of note behind him except free agent DickRod, and he's the definition of marginal.

I expect new GM Brian Gutekunst to stay conservative with free agency -- he was privy to whatever discussions dissuaded the Thompson administration from taking big FA swings, and there's ample evidence that big-name free agency is a losing bet. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if some of these holes are filled with Davon House/Lance Kendricks/Jahri Evans-type vets on cheap, 1-2 year deals. The risk and reward is better balanced in that market.

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