BATTING AVERAGE meaning in the Cambridge English Dictionary

batting average means

batting average means - win

England's Best T20 Team: Part One (Batting)

Introduction

Now that this summer's T20s are over, I think it'd be a good idea to evaluate how good England's T20I team actually is and what our best T20I team might be. Obviously, you are never going to get 100% agreement on this topic, but statistical analysis, while not a be-all and end-all, can certainly help us in this regard.
When I did this sort of analysis for England's all-time ODI team (you can read that here), I got quite a few criticisms for my methods. One of those criticisms was that I used ratios rather than z-values when comparing batsmen across eras, and another criticism was that I broke the stats down by specific position (i.e. opener, #3, #4 etc.) when it might have been better to break it down by more general position (i.e. opener, top order, middle order etc.).
The first criticism I feel is valid, whereas I'm not too sure about the second. I plan on redoing that analysis at some point and this post, in addition to being used to help determine England's best T20I team, is sort of a test run to see how my new (and hopefully improved) method will be received. What is that method, you ask?
I'll be taking the player's z-values for both batting average and for strike rate, and calculating the arithmetic mean of the two values to determine an overall 'batting rating' for the player, higher being better of course. The complaint I can already see some people having is that some positions in the batting lineup value strike rate more whereas some value batting average, and I think that's a fair point.
To that end, I will be breaking up the stats by position. Openers will remain as they are for obvious reasons. However, rather than taking stats at #3, #4, #5 etc., I will instead be taking stats at #3-#4, #4-#5, #5-#6 and #6-#7. This should hopefully give us a good indication of a batsman's ability in specialised positions while still allowing for fluidity. Without further ado, let us begin.

Openers

There has been much discussion over who England's opening batsmen should be in T20Is. First, here are the stats for non-English openers in T20Is since the start of 2015 (minimum five dismissals):

Batting average mean Batting average standard deviation Strike rate mean Strike rate standard deviation
23.73 9.93 121.48 24.51

Now here are the stats for every England T20I opener with at least five dismissals since 2015:

Player Batting average Average z-value Strike rate SR z-value BatRat
Jos Buttler 51.00 +2.747 157.73 +1.479 +2.113
Tom Banton 27.85 +0.415 151.16 +1.211 +0.813
Jason Roy 25.05 +0.133 148.69 +1.110 +0.622
Jonny Bairstow 25.00 +0.128 142.54 +0.859 +0.494
Alex Hales 20.61 -0.314 132.82 +0.463 +0.074

There are some very interesting observations to make here.
Firstly, a common argument against playing Buttler as T20I opener is that other batsmen can do as good of a job as he does up top, whereas no-one can do as good of a job as he does in the middle order. The second part of this argument will be investigated later, but since the start of 2015 at least, Buttler has been heads and shoulders above every other English opener.
Secondly, Roy and Bairstow seem practically interchangeable as far as averages go, but Roy has a much better strike rate since the start of 2015. If I could only choose one of the two then based on this table, Roy would seem the safer bet.
Thirdly, a statistical point to make is that looking at raw averages, it wouldn't appear as if Banton were much better than Roy and Bairstow. However, the variance in openers' averages for the past five (nearly six) years means that Banton actually does significantly better here. Of course, Banton hasn't played nearly as often as Roy and Bairstow have, which is the main argument against his inclusion over those two.
Finally, Hales' numbers actually shocked me. His overall record while opening is very good, but for almost six years now, he's been pretty average as far as T20I openers go. A lack of games isn't the issue either, as he has played the second-most innings at the top out of all the batsmen in the table, behind only Jason Roy. It's entirely possible that he'd have been dropped from the T20 team even if he hadn't fallen out with Morgan.

#3-#4

Here are the stats for all non-English batsmen with a minimum of five dismissals at positions #3 or #4 since the start of 2015:

Batting average mean Batting average standard deviation Strike rate mean Strike rate standard deviation
24.87 10.06 118.66 21.93

Now here are the stats for all the England T20I batsmen with at least five dismissals at positions #3 or #4 since the start of 2015:

Player Batting average Average z-value Strike rate SR z-value BatRat
Dawid Malan 52.45 +2.740 148.32 +1.353 +2.047
Jonny Bairstow 46.00 +2.099 159.72 +1.873 +1.986
Eoin Morgan 33.15 +0.822 151.22 +1.485 +1.154
Joe Root 37.50 +1.255 125.69 +0.321 +0.788
James Vince 26.22 +0.134 127.56 +0.406 +0.270

As expected, Dawid 'The T20 Bradman' Malan tops the list (although his overall average dipped below 50 in the most recent match against Australia, his average at these particular positions remains over 50). However, Bairstow does much better than I expected him to, although this is with the proviso that he barely squeaks into the list with exactly five dismissals in these two positions combined.
Morgan does pretty well here, but Root, while a good batsman in this role, doesn't appear to be as good as his competitors. His strike rate isn't actually that bad for the positions he's playing in, but other England batsmen are posting much higher strike rates with averages that are in some cases better than what Root offers. Vince also isn't actually that bad, but compared to everyone else, he isn't getting a look-in anytime soon.

#4-#5

Here are the overall stats:

Batting average mean Batting average standard deviation Strike rate mean Strike rate standard deviation
24.13 9.92 120.72 21.31

And here are the stats for England batsmen since the start of 2015:

Player Batting average Average z-value Strike rate SR z-value BatRat
Eoin Morgan 32.48 +0.841 146.64 +1.216 +1.029
Jos Buttler 28.85 +0.475 139.79 +0.895 +0.685
Ben Stokes 29.00 +0.491 127.19 +0.303 +0.397
Moeen Ali 15.50 -0.870 132.85 +0.569 -0.150

This is an easy one. Buttler hasn't batted in these positions since 2018 and both Stokes and Ali have just five and six dismissals in these positions since 2015 respectively (not that Ali's stats are that good anyway). This role belongs firmly to Captain Morgan, and the good thing is that he isn't much less comfortable at #4-#5 than he is at #3-#4.

Finishers (#5-#6)

MS Dhoni played most of his T20I innings at #5 and #6, so I think it's fair to say that these are the positions where you want to play your finisher (depending on the match situation, of course). Here are the aggregates for non-English batsmen since the start of 2015:

Batting average mean Batting average standard deviation Strike rate mean Strike rate standard deviation
21.54 10.98 122.57 24.36

As you can see, batsmen in these positions have since the beginning of 2015 tended to average significantly lower but also score a little quicker. I don't think this is too surprising. Anyway, here are the stats for England batsmen in these positions during that timeframe:

Player Batting average Average z-score Strike rate SR z-score BatRat
Moeen Ali 22.50 +0.087 156.97 +1.412 +0.750
Eoin Morgan 25.66 +0.375 133.52 +0.450 +0.412
Sam Billings 22.26 +0.066 136.32 +0.564 +0.315
Jos Buttler 22.46 +0.084 128.62 +0.248 +0.166
Ben Stokes 18.00 -0.322 130.12 +0.310 -0.006

Well, well, well. There is a lot to unpack here. I think it's fair to say that England doesn't really have a world-class finisher, but other than that, what else can we learn?
Firstly, Moeen Ali of all people has the best stats for England in these positions since the start of 2015. However, he's only been dismissed six times in these positions since that time, so sample size might be an issue here.
Secondly, Morgan is serviceable enough, but he is clearly far worse here than in the previous two positions. As captain, he might be willing to plug this gap at the expense of his personal stats, but I feel as if forcing him into a finisher role will be a waste of his talent.
Thirdly, the notion that no-one else can do what Buttler does in these positions is clearly nonsensical. Moeen and Morgan have been better than him in both metrics for nearly six years and even Billings seems to be a better option here. In fact, Buttler has the lowest strike rate in the entire list. If he is forced into batting at #5-#6 then England will be completely wasting his immense talent as far as I'm concerned.
Finally, these positions are where Stokes tends to play, yet he clearly isn't good at being a finisher. I'm not even kidding when I say that on his batting alone, he wouldn't get in past Billings, and Billings is supposedly part of the B-team. If Stokes is to bat then it must be higher up than #6, and it's debatable if he would displace Morgan.

#6-#7

Finally, we have the boundary between the middle order and the tail. These positions probably won't contain a specialist batsman, but whoever's playing here should be able to bat with some degree of competence in my opinion. Here are the aggregate stats since the start of 2015:

Batting average mean Batting average standard deviation Strike rate mean Strike rate standard deviation
18.03 8.98 121.79 23.22

As you might have expected, players in these positions don't tend to be as good with the bat. Now let's do England players since the start of 2015:

Player Batting average Average z-score Strike rate SR z-score BatRat
Sam Billings 22.21 +0.466 138.83 +0.734 +0.600
Moeen Ali 18.77 +0.083 144.44 +0.975 +0.529
Ben Stokes 13.71 -0.481 145.45 +1.019 +0.269
David Willey 11.00 -0.782 126.92 +0.221 -0.562
Lewis Gregory 7.00 -1.228 116.66 -0.221 -0.724

At this point, we are realistically going to have to consider factors such as bowling if we're only interested in seeing who gets into the team, but I think it's fair to say that you want a bowler who can bat a bit to come in these positions.
England could, of course, play Sam Billings as specialist batsman at #7 if they so wish. He's actually better at #6-#7 than at #5-#6, but whether England want to play a specialist batsman that low is another matter.
Moeen, for all the criticism he gets, is actually pretty handy with the bat. Unlike Billings, he actually bats better at #5-#6, although he has batted far more innings at #6-#7 than at #5-#6. I'm not too confident playing Stokes here, if I'm honest; it seems like the lower he bats, he worse he gets.
Willey only has six dismissals in these positions, and to my understanding, he actually opens in domestic T20. His batting talent is clearly being wasted this low down. That goes even more for Gregory, although he's only had five dismissals here.

Conclusion

Looking at those above tables, it isn't particularly easy to construct a Top Seven for T20Is. However, I'll give it a shot anyway, though it'll no doubt be controversial. Here it is:

Jos Buttler
Tom Banton/Jason Roy
Jonny Bairstow
Dawid Malan
Eoin Morgan
Moeen Ali/Sam Billings
Moeen Ali/Sam Billings

Mo and Billings are interchangeable, and Roy's experience means that I'm not sure if Banton's in the Best XI yet (though his stats so far are pretty good). I'm quite uneasy with Malan at #4 (he's batted one innings in that position and scored 11) but the alternative would be to drop Bairstow and move everyone else up the order (I have no problem with Morgan at #4, but without Stokes at #5, I fear the middle order would be too fragile).
In fact, let's do that right now:

Jos Buttler
Tom Banton/Jason Roy
Dawid Malan
Eoin Morgan
Moeen Ali/Sam Billings
Moeen Ali/Sam Billings
???

Not the most balanced lineup, I have to say. We're relying quite a bit on our top order there to get the runs. Let's see what it looks like if we add Stokes at #5:

Jos Buttler
Tom Banton/Jason Roy
Dawid Malan
Eoin Morgan
Ben Stokes
Moeen Ali/Sam Billings
Moeen Ali/Sam Billings

Now that's much better. While I don't think that Stokes is a particularly good T20I batsman, I can see why so many England fans want him back: Without him, our batting lineup isn't well-balanced bar our openers and Eoin Morgan. Until we get a proper finisher, we need Stokes at #5 just to provide some stability.
The big conclusion for me, though, is that Buttler has to open. There are frankly better options than him in the middle order and the other openers just aren't on his level. Not playing Universe Jos at the top of the order would be an utter waste of his ability, in my opinion.
Anyway, that's what I think England's best T20I batting lineup is. I have to be honest, I'm still not sure I've got it entirely right, but I just don't see how the alternatives would be better. Still, maybe I'm missing something. I'd love to hear what everyone else thinks of this conundrum. Next time, I'll tackle the bowling. Oh, goodie.
submitted by MightySilverWolf to Cricket [link] [comments]

Today, the Cincinnati Reds scored zero runs in 13 innings, despite having a better batting average than usual. The team had 11 hits and 39 outs, meaning they hit .220 collectively. In the regular season, they hit .212.

A lot of missed opportunities today.
Here is a link to their season stats: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2020.shtml
submitted by bonziwellsayo to baseball [link] [comments]

Has Steve Smith really been redeemed?

Or does a batting average mean more to fans than a test captain being caught deliberately cheating?
Interested to hear both sides, kinda feel like I’m in a minority though.
Obviously I understand he’s served his ban and spent time in the community - now he can play. But is redemption talk after his first (incredible) Test really appropriate?
Edit: My view
Seems that not everyone considers cheating to be as serious as I do.
Never mind regulations, or how severe a punishment they got compared to other people in the past. What about the message it sends to young kids? That if you play incredibly well afterwards all will be forgotten?
A win at all costs mentality is extremely dangerous way of playing the game, or any sport. There can only be a zero tolerance for any form of cheating regardless of how successful it actually is. It wasn’t a mistake, it was a conscious decision.
submitted by hlippitt to Cricket [link] [comments]

Red Sox prospect Bobby Dalbec has 19 homers, 70 RBIs, .900 OPS, but there are some offensive concerns

Red Sox prospect Bobby Dalbec is batting .250 with a .363 on-base percentage, .546 slugging percentage, .909 OPS, 19 homers, 25 doubles, one triple and 70 RBIs in 82 games for High-A Salem.
The two issues: batting average and strikeout rate.
I know what you're thinking. Batting average is an out-of-date statistic. It doesn't matter anymore and .250 certainly isn't bad. But he's batting .424 in July (14-for-33). He batted only .227 (57-for-251) the first three months of the season.
Here's where batting average means something, in my opinion: If he hits .227 (57-for-251) over a three-month span at High A, it brings into serious doubt whether he'll be able to handle major league pitching eventually or whether he'll be a Will Middlebrooks-type.
As SoxProspects.com's Chris Hatfield pointed out via Twitter, "In particular, look at the splits. He's been so on fire the last 10 days his season line looks completely different."
The strikeout rate also is significant. He has punched out 105 times in 82 games. That also makes you wonder whether he'll eventually be able to hit big league pitching.
Hatfield also pointed out on Twitter, "Dalbec's had a couple of 1-2 week stretches this year when he's cut the K's down to a manageable level, during which he gets red hot. But he needs to do that for more than 10-12 games at a time."
All that said, the raw power is there. He turned 23 in June. It should be interesting to see how the rest of this season plays out for him.
Have a nice Tuesday.
Christopher Smith, MassLive.com Red Sox reporter
submitted by smittyonmlb to redsox [link] [comments]

I thought it would be cool to visualize regression to the mean using the Dodgers' position players batting averages. This is after the first 10 games.

I thought it would be cool to visualize regression to the mean using the Dodgers' position players batting averages. This is after the first 10 games. submitted by hall714 to Dodgers [link] [comments]

Test batting averages -- Bradman is over SIX standard deviations from the mean!

Test batting averages -- Bradman is over SIX standard deviations from the mean! submitted by prime_lens to Cricket [link] [comments]

The Value of a Good Lineup

Lately, I’ve been wondering about lineups and if there’s a way to improve on the current school of thought for lineup construction. The main problem with studying this is there tends to be a fairly static set of lineups used in games, (excluding injuries) and it’s not like I can find a manager and say “hey, try this idea out for about a month”. So I’ve spent a little time to create a quick and dirty game simulator instead. Quick and dirty being the key words here.
Some things to note about the simulations I did:
So let’s get into the data now. The results after 40320 different lineups played 1000 times each:
There’s some obvious things in here, some of it reinforces common thought, some of it is unexpected. Some of my takeaways:
Other stuff:

TL;DR: Stanton is not a #2 hitter, Yelich is, and lineups overall may be worth 1-3 wins at best.

E: Okay, maybe this is formatted now...
submitted by char_z to baseball [link] [comments]

What do they mean by batting average "when the count is" X balls and Y strikes?

For example, how do you calculate a player's BA "when the count is 2 and 0"?
(A) hits divided by at-bats, among only those at-bats that end ON the 2-0 pitch?
(B) hits divided by at-bats, among only those at-bats that end ON OR AFTER the 2-0 pitch?
(C) Something else?
Announcers and writers use this statistic all over the place, very cavalierly, but I've never understood what exactly it's measuring. I couldn't even find the answer on Google just now.
It's important. I can't tell if this is a useful statistic or not, until I know how it's defined. Are batting averages with less than 2 strikes always inflated because they don't include strikeouts? Suppose Pablo Sandoval swings at every 3-ball count and he hits a home run 1% of the time and goes on to strike out 99% of the time, is his "batting average in 3-0 counts" really 1.000?
submitted by Sabu_mark to mlb [link] [comments]

Anthony Santander has the same WAR as Mancini despite half as many at bats and worse hitting stats due to Macini's abismal -1.3 defensive WAR, and Santander's above average .3 defensive WAR. Santander's -1.4 baserunning runs compared with his above average speed mean he can become a good baserunner.

submitted by Jaker18 to orioles [link] [comments]

If a baseball player's batting average is .300, does this mean he'll have a 30% chance of getting a hit every at-bat?

submitted by drygnfyre to NoStupidQuestions [link] [comments]

[Sports] - Bryce Harper's awful batting average doesn't mean he's an undeserving all-star | Washington Post

[Sports] - Bryce Harper's awful batting average doesn't mean he's an undeserving all-star | Washington Post submitted by AutoNewspaperAdmin to AutoNewspaper [link] [comments]

@washingtonpost: Perspective: Bryce Harper’s awful batting average doesn’t mean he’s an undeserving all-star. Just look at these numbers. https://t.co/Dv9i18tLx2

@washingtonpost: Perspective: Bryce Harper’s awful batting average doesn’t mean he’s an undeserving all-star. Just look at these numbers. https://t.co/Dv9i18tLx2 submitted by -en- to newsbotbot [link] [comments]

[Sports] - Bryce Harper's awful batting average doesn't mean he's an undeserving all-star

[Sports] - Bryce Harper's awful batting average doesn't mean he's an undeserving all-star submitted by AutoNewsAdmin to WAPOauto [link] [comments]

A man's ego and machismo was once used to protect his family and freedom; now it's used to tout batting averages and box scores. Enough with the bread and circuses. Men should stop obsessing over sports and instead focus on principles. What does it mean to be a "real man" in today's world?

submitted by b_ohare to reddit.com [link] [comments]

A man's ego and machismo was once used to protect his family and freedom; now it's used to tout batting averages and box scores. Enough with the bread and circuses. Men should stop obsessing over sports and instead focus on principles. What does it mean to be a "real man" in today's world?

A man's ego and machismo was once used to protect his family and freedom; now it's used to tout batting averages and box scores. Enough with the bread and circuses. Men should stop obsessing over sports and instead focus on principles. What does it mean to be a submitted by b_ohare to sports [link] [comments]

mFw: self awarness is more talked about than enhanced pre-cognition faculties. I mean, no one even bats an eye - when computers plot storm paths. Consider how much air is moving within your average stom, tons, tons upon tons of air shifting at speeds faster than highway traffic. How is that?

submitted by oreosonmyface to highthoughts [link] [comments]

The HEL Jumper [Chapter 4.2]

Book 1 of The HEL Jumper
Year 2 of The HEL Jumper
Year 3 of The HEL Jumper
-----
Previous | First | Patreon
Thanks to Big_Papa_Dakky, Darth_Android, bloblob, AMERICUH, Ironwing, Krystalin, Mamish, Vikairious, Sam_Berry, KillTech, LilLaussa, Daddy_Talon, Gruecifer, Gaelan_Darkwater, Konrahd_Verdammt, red-shirt, DaPorkchop, Benjamin Durbin, Siddabear, and everyone supporting me on Patreon.
-----
“You alright? Physically, I mean,” Russell asked as he and Thantis returned to the village alone on the shuttle that had brought them to the Forge. “The old ticker’s not going to give out or anything?”
Thantis blinked a couple times as he extracted himself from the depths of whatever train of thought had occupied him for some time. Needless to say, the trip back had not featured lighthearted education regarding the nature of Mara’s core. “It was certainly a stressful situation, wasn’t it? I thank you for doing all of the heavy lifting, Winters.” He left out the fact that they both knew he’d have been left behind otherwise.
“Don’t mention it. That’s literally the sort of thing I trained to do and you’re lighter than a fellow soldier. Would have been really nice to stick around and take a dip in the hot springs, but something tells me that goes against the new ‘don’t interfere with the planet’ policy.”
‘Not that you didn’t enjoy them to your fullest before the rest of the crew got here,’ Io reminded him with a pointed gaze. Russell cleared his throat and let that particular memory lay dormant.
“A day of rest will be more than enough. But you’re sure everything’s alright on the inside, Thantis?”
“You are kind to ask, Winters. Thankfully, my difficulties at the moment remain in the realm of the mental and spiritual. Much happened that I am having difficulty making sense of.”
“You’re not the only one,” Russell assured him as the shuttle shuddered almost imperceptibly, a friendly reminder that they were traveling through air instead of gliding through space. “At least we didn’t break the place.”
‘On the outside, you mean,’ Io clarified in an agitated tone. She was equally as upset about the day’s events as Thantis. ‘We have no idea if anything is left standing on the inside, not to mention that the robot will likely never re-activate even if the facility didn’t self-destruct or otherwise dangerously terminate its own functions. This is the worst day for science since the Lancer was lost. And that was a very bad day for science!’
“You mean other than the fact that we can get home and tell the rest of humanity what happened here, along with everything else we’ve discovered?” Russell observed sharply. “Let a team of archaeologists deal with it. Later.”
Io, who was using the B-MASS in order to be present for both Winters and Thantis, looked to the side and let out a long breath, acknowledging that the current moment might not have been the best time. ‘Yes, later is a good idea, sir. I think we should all give thanks that we will not be giving Veera or Gentia any reason to weep this evening.’
Russell and Thantis shared a look, agreeing that even if Io’s words were true, that wouldn’t be the end of it. The Jumper cleared his throat. “Yeah, no tears. But that doesn’t mean she won’t be mad as hell.”
“You are forgetting a healthy helping of ‘I told you so’,” Thantis added, finally allowing a real smile to shine through the clouds of his tested faith. “A word of advice, Winters?”
“Sure, what’s up?”
“Cave early and cave often,” the Cauthan said with a wink, giving Russell a hearty chuckle as Io nodded approvingly. “Among other things, I find that’s been a constructive cornerstone of my long life with Gentia.”
‘While I’m very much in agreement regarding the capitulation to the needs and wants of the important women in one’s life,’ Io began, batting her eyelashes at Russell as though he needed some sort of reminder that she was such a woman. ‘Gentia and Veera may need to wait. I just received word from the Admiral, sir. He’s on his way to the village and intends to meet us there.’
“For what purpose?” Winters asked curiously. Io made a little show of opening a letter and reading the message within.
‘In his words? Examining primary sources.’
-----
True to his word, Natori was there to greet them when Russell and Thantis’ shuttle set down just outside the western gates. Thanks to his arrival there was already plenty of commotion, adding to the hectic Cauthan harvest season as males and females both hustled to and fro in the fields, plucking ripened produce just before the point of spoilage. The tall, ebony skinned human offered his hand to Thantis as the shuttle’s doors opened upward with an audible hiss. “I am glad to see you are well, my friend. Would you believe that our esteemed colleague Qul’Roth sends his regards and wishes you ‘good health in the name of the Order’?”
‘I wouldn’t,’ Io replied immediately, nevertheless allowing Thantis to answer on his own.
“That is very kind of him. If you would convey my thanks when you return?”
“Happily, Thantis. It sounds to me as though the two of you had quite the little adventure. Lieutenant,” the Admiral addressed Russell and the two men exchanged salutes.
“That’s certainly one way of putting it, sir. What can we do for you?” he asked, waving to a villager who called out in greeting as he passed, a wooden tool for unearthing dato in his paws.
“I believe we speak to Antoth first. I admit that I may have spooked him a little by returning to the village so soon after my last departure. All that I could tell him was that something unexpected happened at the Forge, but that the two of you were unharmed. While I wait on the lead researchers and Lance Corporal Mendes to pen their official reports, I figured it might be wise to hear of events the old fashioned way. Shall we?” he suggested, sweeping an arm behind him towards the village. A particular striped Cauthan was, of course, awaiting them there. She was not pleased.
“Ah, perhaps an explanation for your wife is in order too?” Natori suggested, understanding that his presence was likely a significant contributor to Veera’s serious demeanor.
“If it’s the same to you Admiral, I think it’s best I handle this alone,” Russell replied, leaving Thantis’ side and walking up to Veera. She tilted her head slightly to maintain eye contact, her expression one of expectation as she waited for him to begin. “Listen Veera, I know it looks bad but-”
“Did you know that Fenrir’s figured out where all of the meat is stored?” she demanded suddenly, causing Russell to stick his neck out and cock his head in confusion.
“I’m sorry, he what?”
“He found me on patrol this afternoon with a chesko sausage hanging from his mouth and a very pleased expression on his face,” Veera explained, a hand on her hip. “I had to go to the temple of Valta and compensate them!”
“Oh boy. I’m sure Ratha was thrilled,” Russell responded, a nervous pit in his stomach as he considered how much mayhem Fenrir could get up to.
“She’s going to kill him if this continues!” Veera insisted. “Just please tell me you didn’t teach him to do this!”
“Why would I teach Fenrir to steal meat from the one place in town that would get him riddled with arrows?!” Russell demanded, feeling he had some small, slight justification for taking offense.
“Because sometimes you do silly things!” Veera replied as though it were obvious before visibly deflating. “We have to do something, Russell.”
“We will, sweetie. We’ll give him a bit more food at meals and maybe see about keeping some sort of muzzle on him when he’s around town. I can take him hunting again soon too,” the human suggested, silently forgiving his wife her mild hysteria. Ratha’s opinions regarding Veera and hyrven were both well known. His proposal mollified her, and she embraced him to welcome him home.
“I knew everything was alright the moment you and Thantis showed up unharmed. I suppose the Admiral being here means you will have some meeting with Antoth, but I’m glad you’re alright,” she told him. He hummed in her ear and left a quick kiss on her cheek.
“Yeah, things didn’t go as planned but everyone made it out safely. If it’s all the same to you, I think when this is done I’d much rather focus on making sure our pet doesn’t become a pelt,” he replied.
“As long as you admit that I told you so,” Veera said. “That place was obviously nothing but trouble from the very beginning.”
‘Are we going to continue overlooking the part where we can safely travel back to Earth now?’ Io demanded, having observed the married ‘spat’ for long enough. Veera’s eyes widened in surprise.
“We can… you did it?” she gasped.
“I sure as hell didn’t,” Russell clarified quickly. “But something happened that deactivated whatever process was going on in there. Io’s right. The warp point is clear and at some point soon I have to imagine Natori is going to take his ship home.”
Veera found herself caught flat footed by the news, looking down at the earth beneath her feet as a sudden trepidation struck her. They had talked about Russell’s eventual departure many a time over the seasons she’d known him, but it was always a hypothetical, an occasion far down the line. That line seemed soon to end. “So I… have to leave?” she questioned.
“Veera, I need to go meet with Antoth and the Admiral. When I’m done we’ll sit down and have a long talk about this, ok? If things have changed and you really want to stay, there may be a way to do that,” he explained.
“But your family! Your parents!” Veera exclaimed before cutting herself off, noticing Thantis and Natori waiting at a polite distance for them. “You’re right. Please don’t take long.”
“We won’t. Where’s the little troublemaker now?” Russell wondered.
“I sent him off into the forest after his little snatch and grab. So he’ll probably be back for dinner.”
“Count on that hyrven to never miss a meal. Alright love, I’m glad you and he are ok. See you soon?”
Veera took his hands in hers and nodded. “Offer Antoth your guidance, Russell. You are the only human he can trust.”
Though Russell’s first inclination was to protest, he couldn’t help but acknowledge the fact that even someone as forward and open as Natori could possess his own interests and agenda. He hummed low in his chest and agreed with a nod of his head. “I will, Veera.”
-----
“Walk me through it one more time?” Antoth requested, running a hand through the feathers atop his head as he, Thantis, Russell, and Natori were seated within the temple of Kel. Xan was there too, finding himself in the position of scribe as Thantis was an involved party in the Forge incident.
“As I said, Antoth, the Cauthan made from metal visited us while we were exploring the main chamber,” Thantis recounted. “It was clearly female, given the plumage, but how such a thing could possibly exist is beyond me. I am unsure whether it was a servant of Kel, Tyrdus, or neither. While there were many of us there, it chose to approach me specifically and attempted to communicate. I, regretfully, did not understand anything it said to me, either with its voice or its feathers.”
“Yes, I got that part,” the chieftain clarified in a patient tone. “It is what comes afterward that puzzles me.”
“You’re not the only one,” Russell agreed before allowing Thantis to continue the tale from his perspective.
“I attempted to speak to the metal being, requesting information about its nature, which of the gods it served. I believe I mentioned Kel and Meylith specifically, Antoth. When it replied to me it was no clearer than when it first spoke, but I do believe it was a reply instead of some unrelated statement.”
“Because it repeated the word Kel to you,” Antoth finished.
“Precisely. That is when a great many things began happening all at once. Spirit Io tells me that some sort of invisible disturbance began within the Forge, something powerful. The entire place began to shake violently, and the great weapon that the humans believe was causing the corruption plummeted into the abyss below. It was then that the metallic being collapsed. I attempted to revive it, or at least ascertain what had happened but the humans deemed the situation too dangerous at that point. Winters carried me from the facility as I was unable to move fast enough.”
Antoth glanced over at the Jumper. “I find myself in the position of thanking you yet again, Winters. However, given that Thantis would have never been in danger in the first place if not for your discovery, I will not go so far as to say either of us are in your debt.”
“That’s the least of my worries, Antoth, but thank you,” he replied as Natori spoke up.
“Antoth, I believe that certain subjects we have discussed in the past must now be brought to the fore again. While departure is not imminent, as soon as my crew determines we can safely leave your planet we will begin preparing a timetable to do so. Assuming your invitation to my crew regarding your harvest festival still stands, I think it would be a crime to pass up such an opportunity for cultural exchange. Once it is concluded, I cannot envision a scenario where we remain much longer.”
“I understand,” Antoth said, adjusting his posture as he stretched and stood sternly near one of Thantis’ many shelves full of dried herbs and scrolls. “My invitation to your people remains, however I reserve the right to revoke it at any time if I feel there is a need. I think we should table that discussion for another time. Right now I need to ruminate on the situation at hand. Kel refused to open his gate to your people, even Winters, but he did so for his servant among our own. This is… a curious omen.”
Russell shook his head in discomfort as Io began to practically vibrate with excitement, causing a bit of feedback in his earpiece. Having dealt with her, he addressed the two leaders. “Antoth, I’m happy to stay if you wish but I should get home if not. It sounds like Fenrir was up to no good today.”
“I don’t know about it and assuming the situation is under control I’ll be happy not to know about it,” Antoth replied, making it clear in his tone that he expected Winters to exert said control over the situation. “If Thantis and I need to speak with you we will find you.”
“Understood. Admiral Kaczynski, sir?”
The Admiral instead looked at Antoth. “Is there anything else you wished to discuss so long as I am here?”
“The food situation,” Antoth replied immediately, glancing at Xan. Natori nodded.
“I must admit that over the short period of time since we last spoke I have not received any updates myself. However I would be happy to escort Xan or someone else from your village up to the Event Horizon to inspect the current crop personally.”
“Then you should go, Xan. If we will not receive armor or weapons we should at least ensure this food is suitable when grown far from Mara’s soil. Will there be any issues?” he finished on a considerate note.
“No Antoth, I’d be happy to. I should grab a couple of things and let my family know where I’ll be though,” the young scholar explained.
“Very well, you are dismissed.”
“My shuttle will be waiting at the western gate,” Natori advised the young Cauthan. “First Lieutenant, I do not wish to keep you too long but I would appreciate it if you and Io would accompany me that far.”
“Yes sir,” Russell replied, seeing no reason to protest. “Selah, Thantis. Today was quite the adventure.”
“I shall remember it for the rest of my life,” Thantis agreed, his customary demeanor returning as a ‘smile of knowledge’ spread across his muzzle. “And while that may not be a particularly strong statement, I am sure that you will as well. Go in peace, everyone. Selah. Shall we summon the others, Antoth?”
“Not yet. Let us speak privately,” the burly Cauthan requested, indicating that he no longer needed the other three individuals in the temple. Xan packed up the scroll he’d been scribbling on and departed for his family’s home to the north while Russell and the Admiral headed west.
“Is your wife the only Cauthan with an understanding of English?” Natori began.
“So far as I know, sir,” Russell replied in a guarded tone.
“Excellent, then we can dispense with some of the secrecy. What is your opinion on taking this village back to Earth with us?” he wondered. Io was visibly restraining herself from answering for the both of them, but her opinions on the matter were obvious. Russell was more defferential.
“I think that’s a little bit beyond my pay grade, sir. On that subject, however, I need to know if there will be any problems in taking my wife aboard when we leave.”
“Yes well, if we take them all along with us I see no reason she couldn’t come too!” Natori replied in an almost obnoxiously upbeat tone. “The formalities and paperwork will be handled either way in her case, Lieutenant, I assure you. But I do not wish to discuss formalities and rules today. I can do that with men like your father once we return home, and I get the sneaking suspicion there will be quite a few of those conversations. Your gut feelings on the situation will suffice.”
“I’d be worried about them if we left them here and I’d be worried if we took them along, assuming such a thing is even possible and they agree to it” Russell replied. “For every Cauthan like Gentia or Thantis who might jump at the idea, there will be Cauthan like Ratha who will surely object.”
“Undoubtedly,” Natori agreed. “But the conditions are such that they will be forced to answer that question, assuming my staff comes back to me and deems such a mission possible. From a human perspective, it is a clever workaround of many of the objections from our Ghaelen guest, objections that will be more difficult to ignore once he is returned to his people.”
‘Since simply removing the village from existence was his enlightened idea in the first place,’ Io quipped, using vicious air quotes to append the word ‘enlightened’. Natori chuckled heartily, waving cordially to a couple of farmers who looked their way at the noise.
“In defense of Emissary Qul’Roth, I am not sure I want to know what happens to Ghaelen who defy the Order,” Natori suggested. “But per your evaluation, Io, I see no reason not to make it our enlightened decision instead.”
“A decision to do what, exactly? Take them home and just turn them loose in a random city? Keep them in an HEL compound for years?” Russell demanded. Kaczynski stroked his chin.
“I need a shave I believe. And count on the Jumper to immediately identify all the ways in which a situation could go wrong. Before you object, I approve of the approach. Though if you’ve already moved on to that point I presume you would generally be in favor of the translocation?”
Russell organized his thoughts as the two men passed through the central square of the town, considering what it might look like in various settings he’d visited back home. “At least if they came with us and needed help I’d be able to do something.”
Natori looked at Winters out of the corner of his eye. In truth, the Jumper was not used to speaking with people taller than him. An uncomfortable reminder of days gone by being scolded by his father gave way to a desire to see the man again. “May I ask what you were planning to do upon returning to Earth, Lieutenant? If you remain at your current post I’m not sure you would be any more able to aid these Cauthan than if we left them here.”
That feeling of familial absence returned as Winters shook his head. “I didn’t give it much thought when I was aboard the Lancer, sir. Once I was here, worrying about it seemed pointless. I guess now’s the time to think about it again, but life’s already moved past that. Not sure I’ll leave the HEL, but when we get I’m going to turn in my wings, so to speak. The Jumper corps don’t need fathers. Doesn’t mean I’m not proud to have served as one of humanity’s most heavily armed bachelors.”
Natori laughed earnestly at the description. “Children really do change everything, don’t they?”
“You would know far better than I, sir. I’m just making assumptions. I want Veera to come with me, and that if she does I need to come home each night for several reasons. I normally wouldn’t talk to someone like you about these things, but I’m sure you’ll be in charge of accepting or denying that request when the time comes,” he added, trying to keep his tone from being standoffish. Natori seemed to find the comment entertaining, so he figured he’d succeeded.
“Yes I suppose it was a deviation into rather private affairs. You have my apologies, Lieutenant. You and your sister are so different, but I can see your father in the both of you. I cannot make any guarantees, but I will do what I can if you’ve decided that your future lies outside of the Jumper corps. If things play out the way I expect them to, you and I and Io may have a mutual interest in such an arrangement, lest you think I’m somehow trying to play father.”
“Thanks for the assurances, sir,” Russell replied shortly, only broadening Natori’s smile.
“Youth is wonderful, is it not? In any case, you have something like six months to consider these questions, plus however long it takes us to get our affairs in order and depart this planet. With the threat from the alien installation apparently gone, my curiosity as to its nature has only increased.” Natori paused for a moment before snapping his fingers as he remembered something. “I need an after action report from you within the next twenty four hours, Lieutenant. I am aware that you have duties that go a bit beyond those of the average Event Horizon crew member, but given the magnitude of the event you just bore witness to, I need to review evidence from every angle, every perspective. There is no telling what the twenty or so of you might have seen or not seen.”
‘Done,’ Io replied, making a show of procuring the necessary video and audio files along with a written report that literally materialized atop her open palm. ‘Anything else?’
“You’ll let me review it first before it’s sent to the Admiral,” Russell insisted in no uncertain terms. “And later, I want you to make sure Xan is alright when he’s aboard the Event Horizon. Veera and I need to talk things over.”
‘Yes I suppose you do,’ Io agreed, filing away the materials she’d produced for his review. She waved politely at Natori. ‘Admiral, I will speak with you again some other time.’
“A pleasure as always,” he replied before her projection winked away. “Thank you for your time, Lieutenant. I will be fine waiting for the young apprentice before heading back. In the coming days and weeks I hope you will keep in mind that I value your opinion as an expert on the Cauthan, even if I make decisions that conflict with your sensibilities.”
Russell took a moment to think through his reply, knowing well enough that the Admiral was not trying to patronize him. Natori took that time to look up at the gatehouse, nodding appreciatively at the construct of wood and packed dirt. “As long as you aren’t making decisions to appease the Ghaelen, sir, I can’t see myself raising any objections.”
Kaczynski hummed shortly in reply. “Fair enough. You’re dismissed, Lieutenant.”
Winters saluted silently and turned to head off along the road to the north, wondering how many more times he would walk along the rows of crowded homes, blockhouses, and rough drainage trenches.
----
The evening’s dinner preparation was a mostly silent affair. The crackling of firewood and the sound of a knife against wood, vegetables, and meat were comforting as he reviewed the full contents of Io’s report on the Forge incident. Every so often he made annotations, correcting Io’s propensity for flourish and embellishment. It had been a long time since he’d had to deliver such a report, and Io obviously found military language to be boring and trite. Between the two of them they soon had an acceptable product to send up to Natori’s bridge, along with the footage from his helmet cams. Task completed, Winters was free to address the question that had been hanging over both him and Veera for the entire afternoon. She was clearly as eager, or perhaps as nervous, as he, and he found her scrutinizing him from over the cooking pot.
“Hey there, I’m all finished,” he began, standing and moving to her side. “Do you need any help?”
“No, all of the heavy lifting is done. Just need to let it simmer for a while,” she told him, knocking a wooden spoon on the rim of the pot before taking a seat on one of their chairs. He joined her. “Your people will leave soon, and you’ll have to go with them.”
“Yeah, they will,” Russell agreed, taking her hand in his and giving thanks that they wouldn’t be beating around the bush. “I do want to go back, Veera. I haven’t seen my parents or my two other siblings for…”
Veera watched as her mate fell silent, his face looking far older than his actual age of twenty five as he counted the months. “It’s been too long, hasn’t it?” she asked compassionately.
“The Admiral managed to get them here in about three months, but I don’t think he would push things that hard on the return trip. All told, even if we left tomorrow and didn’t make any detours, it would probably be more than two years total by the time I get home. And for at least half of that time they’ll have lived without knowing whether I’m alive or dead.”
“It was clearly very hard for Alice,” Veera agreed, recalling the tearful scene from the bridge of the Event Horizon. “And she got to see you long before they will. You know I’ll still go with you, my love.”
“I know,” he affirmed, looking at the flames as they licked at the blackened exterior of the pot that had served them well for many months. “But I know things have changed here too. I know there’s a lot you would leave behind now so… I think we should talk.”
“About what, Russell?” she inquired. “I’m happy to talk about anything with you. We even vowed to do so in sight of the Mother, but it sounds like our path is already set.”
“Maybe, but when we get to Earth things need to change,” he explained. “I can’t… I won’t get sent off on another mission like this. Even if you weren’t pregnant there would be a question, you know? But now there’s no way I want you following me around on military ships, and no way I’m going to leave you after you give birth. So… I’m going to have to figure something else out. Even cabins in the mountains don’t build themselves, and the life of a recluse isn’t the sort of thing I’d want for our kids.”
To Russell’s surprise, Veera purred and nuzzled his cheek. She teased him gently. “Look at you trying to plan out our entire lives. I would never say no to you being in less danger.”
Russell placed an arm around her shoulder and rested his head against hers. “Is there a ‘but’ in there somewhere?”
“I was trying to be accommodating,” Veera pointed out. “But I would feel awful if you gave up something important on account of my pregnancy. It’s not like we planned for this.”
“No, we didn’t,” he agreed seriously, sitting up in his seat and rubbing the back of his neck. “But that doesn’t change the fact. Besides, there aren’t many people who remain soldiers forever. Even people like my father eventually take non-combat roles and desk jobs. It might not go exactly the way we expect, but I’m sure I can work something out within the HEL if the civilian life just isn’t for me.”
“Then it sounds like we don’t have much to worry about in terms of our family,” Veera summarized in a relieved tone before casting a glance at their entryway. “I will miss them, though.”
Russell exhaled and looked over at Io, taking up her usual perch at the foot of their bed. He raised his brows at her and she shrugged in return. “I might as well ask your opinion on it then,” he said.
“On what?”
“This is something Io and I have been thinking about for a while but never with any seriousness. Apparently Alice started thinking the same way and made a proposal to both Natori and Antoth the last time the two of them met.”
“Is that where you were called to?” Veera wondered quietly, taking a spoonful of stew and blowing on it until it was cool enough to taste. Satisfied with the blend of flavors, she grabbed two wooden bowls and began serving them both. “What is it that Alice was contemplating?”
“From the sound of it, taking you and every single Cauthan in this village back home with us to Earth isn’t a flight of fancy,” Russell explained. Veera paused with a ladle full of stew halfway between the kettle and her bowl.
“I- what? Is such a thing even possible?” she demanded aghast. Russell nodded, propping up one ankle on the opposite knee.
“Way I understand it, the Event Horizon is running with a skeleton crew, at least so far as non-military personnel are concerned. When they learned they were coming after me, that my ship had been lost, a lot of people who could chose to stay behind. There’s plenty of space so long as your people can handle space travel. Obviously we’ve already experimented with that a bit.”
“But why would they take us in the first place?” Veera asked suspiciously. “Here, eat while it’s hot.”
“Smells wonderful, thank you,” Russell replied, making sure to take a large bite and savor it for her edification before going on to explain some of the reasons humanity might see a vested interest in taking her village along. “From what I can tell it would actually resolve a sticking point with the Ghaelen regarding human influence on the village. The other reason, honestly, is that we want to.”
“And when we can no longer feed or clothe ourselves because we have left Mara we will be at your mercy,” Veera pointed out suspiciously. Io felt the need to step in at that point.
‘That is true, Veera. However what humanity can offer you in exchange would far exceed what you would lose. Imagine a world where one Cauthan, in someone like Anita’s position, could grow enough food to feed the whole village!’
“That sounds like a good excuse to sit around and grow lazy and fat, just like Vash,” Veera spat. Io recoiled indignantly as Russell waved his spoon her way.
“She’s got a point there, you know. Hey boy, get over here and sit! I heard you were bad today!” Russell commanded, distracted as none other than Fenrir chose that moment to arrive home, having no doubt followed the smells of cooking fires throughout the village. He ruffled the hyrven’s fur roughly before providing him with a plate of pre-cut chesko meat. It was a bit bourgeois to cut their pet’s steak, he knew, but both he and Veera considered bite sized pieces preferable to Fenrir flinging his dinner about the house like a barbarian intent on painting the walls red.
‘Now that the beastie has his dinner and I can defend myself, I can tell you that many humans choose to work jobs like those found at the temples of Tyrdus or the Twins, making things instead of growing things. That might not be a difficult transition. Even more choose to live like Thantis or Alice, devoting their lives to knowledge and its pursuit. And yes, per your conversation with Russell all the way back when you first met, there are some who engage in creating pornographic material and every other profession in between. Based on the amount of garbage I’ve scrubbed from the Event Horizon’s intranet there will be a market for Cauthan smut when we return to Earth one way or another, but I’d rather space my main processors than ruminate on that for too long. You are right, Veera. Being lazy, indolent, and fat is a temptation when you live in a land of plenty, but I think it is better than starvation, death by raider, succumbing to treatable illnesses, or freezing to death.’
“Not to mention there are plenty of human communities who prefer to keep to what they consider to be the ‘old ways’,” Russell added. “I’m not saying anyone’s given the logistics serious thought, but the idea is out there now and it’s not just me and Io who would want to see you all paid back for letting me live here and keeping me alive.”
“That doesn’t change the fact that we would be giving up our freedom and putting our lives in your hands, Russell,” Veera pointed out. “I choose to do so on account of our bonds of marriage and because I consider you to be a male who does not think in such terms. That doesn’t mean that this village will be treated the same way.”
Russell was unable to brush her concerns away, knowing that he was far from the most senior HEL individual in the system anymore. He didn't foresee any issues with the Admiral honoring the union he shared with Veera, but he hadn't exactly married the rest of the village. "I know, but it's not like Io or I would abandon them. I'm not worth much, honestly, but you've seen what Io can do when she doesn't get what she wants."
'I resent that,' she told him. 'You act as though I saw the Event Horizon and thought give me the shiny ship.'
Russell and Veera looked at Io quietly, chewing over tenderized pieces of chesko. She eventually backtracked. ‘Well don’t blame me for having the ability to do both at once! Besides, it’s not even that shiny.’
Veera laughed pleasantly as she reached over to scratch Fenrir between the ears. Between the slowly waning cooking fire and his dinner the hyrven was already headed for dreamland. “I appreciate the sentiment, Io. I know that you and Russell would not abandon us, but that will not make it any easier, especially for people like Ratha and Antoth.”
“That’s a bit of an understatement. I wouldn’t be surprised if it proved necessary to drag Ratha kicking and screaming into a shuttle,” Winters added, finding the image amusing. “Ah well, like I said it’s really not a decision that any of us get to make. I just wanted your perspective. I guess it’s probably a scary concept more than anything.”
“Yes, it is,” Veera agreed quietly. “And unlike me, they do not have someone like you to lean on.”
“Fair enough. Hopefully we can get a few set up like Xan, familiarize themselves with the ship at least. Sounds like Natori could use help and you all have five fingers, an opposable thumb, and are of approximately human height,” Winters reasoned. “Speaking of which, why don’t you head on up, Io. He should be aboard already. I think we’re just going to clean up dinner here.”
Veera waved her feathers in understanding as Io nodded and killed her projection. ‘I suppose I could check back in on my various VI monitoring subroutines as well. As you say sir. I will return later tonight.’
-----
“By Kel this place is big,” Xan complained, walking through corridor after corridor aboard the Event Horizon. He’d returned to his normal weight so he figured he had to be somewhere close to his destination, but with every turn he only seemed to find yet another sign featuring vibrant green and yellow symbols showing him the way to the hydroponics bays. The Cauthan let out an audible groan of relief when he stepped into a larger hallway and found a sizable green arrow pointing at a set of bulkheads several times his size. He could not yet read the human runes painted within it, but he recognized the location well enough. Clearing his throat and composing himself he walked up to the doors and made to knock, but found his plans foiled as they simply opened on their own and a synthesized, female voice faintly reminiscent of Io’s own welcomed him to the hydroponics bay. “Hey, Anita?” he called out, facile enough with English to use at least one word. He smiled as she poked her head around the corner of the door to her office, her long ponytail hanging most of the way to the floor from her seated position. She was confused to see him, which confused him in turn.
“X-Xan?” she stuttered. “What are you um, doing here?”
The Cauthan leaned heavily on his cane, putting two and two together before letting out a long sigh of realization and clicking a talon on the floor. “You know, if you’d prefer to work for someone who doesn’t enjoy surprises, Antoth would be happy to have you if you can grow food for us. He’s a similar color too, so that wouldn’t be much of a change, right? He wanted me to check in and see how things are going up here. Guess Natori didn’t give you a warning?”
“No, he didn’t,” Anita confirmed quietly, unsure whether to find humor in the idea of working for Antoth or trying to explain to Xan that it was the height of rudeness to remark on someone’s skin color in such a way. In the end she sat in silent embarrassment as her stomach betrayed her and growled audibly. Even with his mangled left ear Xan was able to pick up on it just fine.
“I have a place to sleep up here so maybe let’s get food first? Not like I’m in a rush or anything. Well, I actually can’t rush much of anywhere these days,” he quipped, pointing to his gimped leg. “I don’t really know my way around so… or was I interrupting something?”
Anita couldn’t bring herself to say no, so instead she zipped up her jumpsuit, grabbed her tablet, and ensured the automated subroutines were all green before tucking her chair neatly away at her desk. “So, ah, how have you been, Xan?” she asked politely, leading the way from her usual haunt to the hallways that would take them to the civilian canteen. The Cauthan kept a sure pace, his cane accentuating his progress. He chuckled to himself as he summed up the events of the prior cycle in one word.
“Busy.”
-----
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"Overseas, their 19 partnerships have lasted a combined total of 828 deliveries - an average of 43.58 balls per dismissal, which converts to about seven overs. That means India's No. 3 batsman has come in to bat around 30 minutes into the team's innings." Very telling stats...

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What Was The Best Season Ever by a Reliever? - an Analysis

Relievers. Who are they? What do they do? Until one bright spring day in 1993, nobody knew the answers to these simple questions. Then, MLB scientists made a breakthrough in their labs in the bowels of the Astrodome, and Mariano Rivera sprung forth from his mother’s womb fully formed and sawed off Jason Giambi. But the question they couldn’t answer is ‘what is the best season ever by a reliever?’. At the time, the technology was simply not expansive enough to begin delving into this question. Now, thanks to huge leaps in science, we can finally answer something that has plagued the minds of man since the dawn of humanity.
Now, clearly, the answer is Francisco Rodriguez, since he’s the single season save leader and that’s the best stat to measure relievers by. But let’s ignore that.
You can just look up which reliever has the most WAR in a single season, which is 1975 Goose Gossage by bWAR (8.2!?!?!) or 1977 Bruce Sutter by fWAR (5.2). The reason for this difference is because BaseballReference uses runs allowed to calculate bWAR, and FanGraphs uses FIP to calculate fWAR. Since relievers pitch such small sample sizes, there’s often a large gap between their FIP and their runs allowed (RA). Since we’re looking at the best season, and not the best player, I’m going to use bWAR (and thus RA) for this exercise.
(If you don’t know what FIP is, it stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, which looks at only the outcomes of at-bats which are solely between the pitcher and the batter - home runs, walks, and strikeouts. These stats are thrown together and then given a normalizing factor so that the average league FIP matches the average league ERA. FIP is a wonderful predictive tool, to the point where it is more predictive of a pitcher’s ERA next year than a pitcher’s ERA is. I’d rather not use it here because it doesn’t look at the actual results - if I was trying to find the best reliever, and not the best season, then I’d use FIP.)
Using a simple value added stat is incredibly biased towards 1970’s middle relievers who would throw 100+ innings in a year, though. WAR is a counting stat, so the more they pitch, the more they rack up. What about bWAIP? One BBRef search later, and I have this table.
Player bWAR bWA100IP IP Year Tm
Ted Abernathy 6.2 5.84 106.1 1967 CIN
Steve Mingori 3.3 5.87 56.2 1971 CLE
Michael Jackson 3.8 5.94 64.0 1998 CLE
Bruce Sutter 6.5 6.07 107.1 1977 CHC
Jose Mesa 3.9 6.09 64.0 1995 CLE
Zack Britton 4.1 6.11 67.0 2016 BAL
Mariano Rivera 4.3 6.13 70.2 2008 NYY
John Hiller 7.9 6.31 125.1 1973 DET
Terry Fox 3.7 6.38 58.0 1962 DET
Jonathan Papelbon 5.0 7.34 68.1 2006 BOS
This is the top 10 relief seasons by bWA100IP, minimum 45 IP. This is a fairly tight pack all the way up until the final entry, where Papelbon’s 2006 leads by near 1bWA100IP. This seems like a good candidate for the best relief year ever.
(Interestingly enough, Bill James’ list of the 100 best reliever seasons ever, written in 2007, doesn’t include Jonathan Papelbon’s 2006 season. Joe Nathan’s 2006, where Nathan pitched the same number of innings and had a much worse ERA, made the list at #27. This is a reminder that Bill James is a fallible human being.)
So, if your criteria for best year by a reliever is bWA100IP, then the best option, by far, is Jonathan Papelbon. But before we look at the other options, here’s why Papelbon’s season was the best.
There have been nine reliever seasons (min. 40 IP) with a lower ERA than Papelbon’s 2006 0.92. Why aren’t they higher in bWAIP?
Player WAR IP ERA Year Tm R ER
Zack Britton 4.1 67.0 0.54 2016 BAL 7 4
Joey Devine 1.9 45.2 0.59 2008 OAK 7 3
Fernando Rodney 3.7 74.2 0.60 2012 TBR 9 5
Dennis Eckersley 3.3 73.1 0.61 1990 OAK 9 5
Rob Murphy 2.5 50.1 0.72 1986 CIN 4 4
Rich Gossage 2.3 46.2 0.77 1981 NYY 6 4
Blake Treinen 4.1 80.1 0.78 2018 OAK 12 7
Bill Henry 2.5 52.0 0.87 1964 CIN 9 5
Dennys Reyes 2.2 50.2 0.89 2006 MIN 8 5
Jonathan Papelbon 5.0 68.1 0.92 2006 BOS 8 7
To begin with, bWAR uses RA for its calculations, which uses both earned and unearned runs. Dennys Reyes, Bill Henry, Blake Treinen, Rich Gossage, Fernando Rodney, Dennis Eckersley, and Joey Devine all had more RA/IP in their respective seasons. (The difference between their ERA and their bWAIP isn’t solely explained by this, but it’s good enough for now. We’ll get to that in a moment). This leaves 1986 Rob Murphy and 2016 Zach Britton. Why don’t they stack up?
The answer is a little thing I’d like to call ‘run environment’, which is encapsulated by BaseballReference’s stat RA9Avg. It takes what an average pitcher’s run allowed/9 innings (RA/9) was that year, and then adjusts it for park factors, for the defense, and for who that specific pitcher faced. If a pitcher had a relatively high run environment, it means he would be pitching in batter’s parks, faced tough opponents, had a bad defense behind him, etc. For a perfectly average pitcher, their RA/9 will match their run environment.
For Murphy, his run environment was 4.11. For Britton, it was 4.32. For Papelbon, it was a whopping 5.00. This makes a huge difference - Papelbon may have gotten slightly worse results, but he was starting from a much more difficult positions.
For another good way to illuminate the differences run environments can cause, I can bring up one of my favorite WAR comparisons! In 1965, Jim Maloney equalled Sandy Koufax in bWAR (and surpassed him if you count batting WAR) despite throwing 80 fewer innings with an ERA 0.50 higher. How did he do this? Simple. Sandy Koufax played in cavernous Dodger Stadium with a strong Dodger defense behind him, and so had a run environment of 3.49 RA/9. Jim Maloney, pitching at batter-friendly Crosley Stadium with a poor Reds defense behind him, had a run environment of 4.34, 0.85 more than Koufax. Since Maloney is expected to give up far more runs than Koufax and only gives up somewhat more runs, he has a large bWAIP lead.
Run environment is 99% of the explanation behind ‘why does WAR give this weird result?’ questions.
Most of the best reliever seasons by ERA have relatively a low run environment - after all, good defense and a friendly park factor really helps a reliever keep the runs down. Fernando Rodney had a run environment of 3.72 in his 0.60 ERA season, because he pitched at the Tropicana and had the Rays defense behind him. Mariano Rivera consistently had a high run environment (career average of 4.72) due to pitching in Yankee Stadium with horrible, horrible, horrible Yankees defenses behind him going against tough AL East opponents. He never had that ‘lucky’ season with a sub-1 ERA, which would likely have put him on this list. He has to live with the stigma of simply being the greatest reliever of all time, unfortunately. Papelbon had an incredible season in a run environment that was incredibly ill-suited for having an incredible season, so his bWAIP is leaps and bounds ahead of anyone else.
So is Jonathan Papelbon’s 2006 the greatest single season by a reliever ever? Well, maybe. Pound-for-pound, it certainly is. But some relievers can pound more often than others, even if they're not pounding quite as hard. Should 70’s and 80’s relievers be penalized for being slightly worse in twice as many innings as Papelbon? John Hiller’s 1973 is a good candidate if you prefer quantity over quality - 7.9 bWAR in 125 innings in relief. Of course, you can flip it around - why penalize Papelbon for pitching less when relievers of that era were expected to pitch less? With the bWAIP, it’s safe to say Papelbon was more dominant in his role than Hiller was in his.
Are there arguments for other pitchers and other seasons? Absolutely. Perhaps you prefer FIP for some reason - then you can probably give the nod to 2003 Eric Gagne, with 4.7 fWAR in 82 innings. I don’t think FIP works well for this type of analysis, because it doesn’t deal with actual results, but you do you. Perhaps you want to dive into BABIP and pick a season that wasn't as lucky - this seems like a fool's errand, since the best reliever seasons are all lucky ones.
Of course, if you believe the best ability is availability, the nod goes to Mike Marshall, who appeared in 106 (!?!) games for the 1974 Dodgers. His 2.42 ERA is tarnished somewhat by the 3.33 run environment at Dodger Stadium at the time, however. Marshall apparently still has very interesting ideas on training to be able to pitch that many innings, but no MLB training staff will let him near their pitchers for some reason.
Now, I know we’d all like someone else to have the best relief season ever in baseball - someone who didn’t attack teammates, someone who didn’t watch porn in the clubhouse, someone who doesn’t hit Manny Macha - ok, I’m fine with that one. But why couldn’t it have been someone like Eric Gagne, or Robb Nen, or Heathcliff Slocumb? I don’t think I’ve ever heard anything negative about those guys. Maybe it’s just time to move on, and let bygones be bygones.
As I understand, Papelbon is just 24 hours from picking a new team, so it’ll be exciting to see him back in the league. Hopefully, he doesn’t choke his comeback.
submitted by SirParsifal to baseball [link] [comments]

Maffy's Man Marks - 1st Test: England vs India

Welcome to a new, deeply thoughtful, potentially erotic and effervescently (I just learnt that word, fuck you) exciting new take on player performances, brought to you by your favourite armchair critic and occasional shitposter, me.
After each of the England versus India games I'll be posting a quick breakdown of each England player's performance, and rating them out of ten. You may think "hold on Maffy, this sounds suspiciously similar to basically every other player rating thread ever... Like, the exact same. In fact who even are you? Didn't you do my nan's guttering last week?". Well that's where you are wrong ladies and genitalmen, because those other threads don't have my boyish charm and self deprecating humour. Though, I potentially did your nan's guttering last week, dependent on where she lives.
So if you've made it this far you probably DO want to hear my ratings. Or in fact you've decided you want to read to the end to make sure it wasn't just a meme. Well, it isn't. It's pure as Arctic snow and it's right here, right now. Get ready for the majesty of Maffy's Man Marks, episode 1.

A note before we begin:

A lot of the comments have been centered around me giving Joe a 9, and not a 9.5 or 10. The reason is thus:
1) Every rating defines, based on a universe of outcomes, how close to the greatest innings of all time (10) that player's performance was. Not "how good they did based on what they could achieve", how close to perfect they were.
2) It is a transitive rating system. Transitivity is a fundamental axiom of numbers, which means if A>B, and B>C, then A>C. It follows for equality too, A=B, B=C, then A=C.
3) To assert that Joe got a 10 would mean I had to concede that his performance was as good as any in history, which in my opinion is false. His performance was not as good as Laxman's 281, arguably the greatest test innings ever along with a few others... And even then, someone could beat those.
4) So, how can I maintain transitivity and give him a 10? A 10 is not "really really good", a 9 is "really really good", which is what Joe got.
So if you think he "deserved a 10" then fair enough, sure... But you aren't using transitivity in that case, and if you're gonna argue with me about it then you're arguing using different rules... Which is just a waste of everyone's time.
...
Rory Burns aka Captain Jack Sparrow - 5.5
Despite his arguably disastrous hair he came out in fine form on day 1, playing some lovely deft touches that we all now associate with this pleasing moustachio'd man from Epsom. Though, on about 30 he decided against all sanity and reason, with the team on 70 and cruising towards an excellent opening stand to play a reverse swoosh. Stupid shot to end a great return to the team. He took a couple catches, and then got a good ball in the second innings, but we got a fun new statistic out of his wicket so who cares.
Dom Fridgely - 8
The man who people were calling to be dropped only 3 innings into a 6 test winter season has bounced back healthily in his last two games, reminding us all of the tremendous white good he is and that he can absorb pressure better than a competition-standard trampoline under the invitees of a fat kid's 8th birthday party. He played some great shots, and built the platform England subsequently stormed away on. Second innings again, like Rory he fell to a good ball but luckily bought himself plenty of goodwill with his first innings showing.
Dan Lawrence - 4
Unfortunately for Dan, who subbed in at the last minute after Zak Crawley apparently sat down too fast into his armchair, the momentum shattering his wrist on impact (bear in mind he was around 7 and a half feet in the air given he was stood up), he had a very quiet showing. Not a single catch and only 18 runs, with both dismissals alarmingly similar to each other - falling over the inswinger. Hopefully if he doesn't go well next game (assuming Crawley comes back in at 3 for the 3rd test) it won't damage his confidence too much, though if it does he won't be any different to the other 300 batsman we've tried there.
Root 66 - 9
Another double tonne, a quickfire 40 and two catches. This guy is in form that most can only dream of, and when I say that I mean literally because the majority of England fans will have slept through the bulk of his runscoring. They will genuinely have been asleep, cuddling up to teddy dreaming of Joe Root's wonderful form and his glimmering blue eyes... So shiny.
Stokesy - 8
Resident ginger Ben Stokes played a superb hand in this game - a brutal first innings which ended about 50 shy of what I would have liked, backed up by England's most economical figures in the first innings, as well as three catches and the all important wicket of Virat in the second innings, who looked justifiably annoyed at getting out to a bloke who probably argues with Taxi drivers if, after saying "anywhere here will do mate", the price of the fare goes up 20p as they pull in.
Ollie Pope (OP) - 6.5
A so-so return to the team for Ollie Pollie, who looked very scratchy in his first innings. He found fluency in the second, though like Rory decided getting out was definitely the best way of securing runs for his team, and decided to execute said strategy post-haste. Maybe 6.5 is a bit harsh given how generous I've been with the other players, but he just seemed a bit underwhelming given how talented we know he actually is. No problem, I'm sure he'll have a good showing at some point in this series. I really want him to average well over 40 in his test career, so let's get hustling on those numbers, OP (hey that's me too!).
JosButtler TM - 7
A good ship-steadying role in both innings played by one of the most destructive batsmen in world cricket. He kept nicely, and overall can leave this winter sequence of tours with his head held high. He will be, we hope, replaced by Lord Foakes who is inevitably going to suck given all the hype we keep pumping him with, but overall Buttler can be pleased with his performance I'd say. His wicket in the second innings looked a little reckless but he was clearly getting frustrated, and in reality was just soaking up deliveries so did the right thing trying to send Nadeem into the stands.
Dom "the Bess of all time" Bess - 8
How long before Bessy is referred to as a bowling all-rounder by the way? He looks very comfortable bat-in hand, and scored some gutsy runs in both innings, backed up by 4 wickets in the first half of the game and the wicket of the irritatingly good Washington Sundar in the second. He also now plays for Yorkshire, which naturally gives him a +0.5 to his rating, and anyone that doesn't like that can just fuck off.
Jof - 7
Decent game for Jof, picking up Sharma and Gill early in the first innings with some economical bowling throughout. He didn't look massively threatening in the second innings, though in his defence this is not his kind of wicket at all and he worked hard with what he had. His batting continues to entertain though, a guy with a first class average of 24 and 6 fifties who in test matches literally looks like the bat weighs 14 stone and his feet have been glued to the track using industrial-strength grouting adhesive.
"The Nut" Jack Leach - 7.5
Leachy with a soul-crushing pounding from Pant in the first innings bounced back to dismiss Sharma, Pujara, Ashwin and Nadeem, giving everyone a reminder of his capabilities both physically with ball-in-hand and mentally. A lovely little cameo in the first innings also gave Bess the support to add on some healthy runs. He seems to improve every innings, and I hope he gets a good run in the squad.
OOOOOOOH JIMMY JIMMY Anderson - 8
The guy is 38 and just bowled one of the best overs I've ever seen, splattering the dangerously in-form Shubman Gill, and scuppering Rahane who can be annoyingly resilient given the chance (though, not currently if you ask Indian fans). Going at 1.5 an over with 3 wickets in the second innings, and 17 overs backed by 2 wickets and 5 maidens in the first innings, Jimmy is just an icon of the modern game and I will get his face tattooed on my balls when he retires. If you don't believe me, fight me.
That's all folks. I would also do India's but I truly, truly don't care about them. No, I joke - but it is a lot of effort and I feel like by the time people reach the end of this alone they will be bored already and tired of my essentially recycling-quality witticisms. For the next edition, if there is demand, I'll do India too.
Well, thank you for stopping by and have a good day all you pomms, bhenchods, betichods, cunts, kiwis, braifolk, members of the Caribbean collective, Bangbros and anyone I've missed. Love and peace, and as always...

Epstein didn't kill himself
submitted by _maffy_ to Cricket [link] [comments]

Infantilization of Gen Z

This could apply to other age groups as well but I’m just speaking about my experience as someone who’s of college age at the moment. Not sure what to flair this as it’s mostly just a ramble but it’s something about culture currently that drives me up the wall as someone who’s always championed personal emotional stability and awareness. Not saying you can’t be emotionally fucked up (I have panic attacks that can get so bad my joints lock up) but I really really abhor escapism. Sorry for any typo’s in this as I’m prone to that sort of thing.
I saw this today and it set me off mentally. I hope this isn’t considered sending hate towards someone or something. I’ve hated videos like this for a long time and it took me a while to articulate why, but really I just hate that this, to be frank, promotes being a massive baby. There’s nothing wrong with a “mental health checkpoint” inherently (even if it’s cringey) but good God this video looks like it was made for actual three-year-olds and if you go into the comments it’s people of high school/college ages eating it up. If you’re above the age of like, probably 11 (and that’s generous) and your first thought at seeing something like this isn’t “well that’s patronizing” or something along those lines then you are emotionally immature. There’s no real way around that, however that’s not something you can say anymore because you’re “invalidating lived experiences” or some other buzzwords.
I have a close friend who I’ve seen go down this path. We’ve been friends for two years now and became pretty close right off the bat. She has suffered a lot of genuine trauma in her life, I won’t share but it’s not like BS stuff, they’re very real issues. However over time I’ve seen her fall more and more into this sort of thinking and she’s just become so much worse. Comparing the person I met two years ago to now is quite frightening. Mental breaks are much more frequent and she seeks help less and less, instead spending her time playing cutesy anime games, buying plushies, getting deep into astrology (easy to reason away self-destructive tendencies if it’s just an Aquarius quirk) and smoking weed all the time with her friends who are just like her and smother each other in toxicly positive validation circlejerking. She went to texting me like a normal person to greeting me with “hey OP hey !!!!!!!! c:”
Anyone on this sub who’s Gen Z probably either knows someone like this or at least knows what I’m talking about. I think this ties into woke stuff because persistent victimhood is one of the cornerstones of that ideology. If the average wokie read this post they’d accuse me of, again, “invalidating lived experiences.” Wokeness promotes being emotionally weak, meaning self-help becomes much more infrequent as it’s very hard for an emotionally weak person to actually confront problems they may have (especially if they’re the source of them).
In general it appears that being a baby is something promoted among people in my age range. Emotional growth has been replaced by infantile escapism as mentally ill teenagers go back to consuming what media they liked as children (no coincidence that things like The Last Airbender and Sanrio stuffed animals are entering relevance again amongst young people). Freak outs over very minor things become more frequent, both due to victimhood being rewarded and the fact that people are just actually that fragile now.
I hope I don’t sound insane. This all makes me sad. There’s a chance I sound like a hardass because I’m someone who had to grow up pretty quickly so I can become really mentally disconnected from my age group sometimes. However I think what I’m saying is rational.
submitted by Nobody_Likes_Shy_Guy to stupidpol [link] [comments]

The Sacred Grove and Grod's Law: How Path of Exile's fundamental itemization design conflicts with its own crafting system

Edit: Actual TL;DR - There is none. It's a complicated issue and I'm hoping you will take the time to read the post if you want to engage in the discussion. That's why the post is tagged 'discussion'.
I made a lengthy comment after reading this post yesterday. What a crazy helmet! But it was the top comment chain in that thread that caught my attention, particularly this comment:
Annoyance leads to a group that is willing to put up with it getting all the rewards but hating the game because it's annoying and a second group that doesn't put up with it but hates that they're missing out on the stuff the first group is getting. Everyone loses.
My thoughts on this subject probably merit its own discussion thread, so here it is.
This reminds me of Grod's Law:
Grod's Law: You cannot and should not balance bad mechanics by making them annoying to use
Years ago on the Giant in the Playground forums (a community for the D&D 3.5 edition tabletop roleplaying game), an argument broke out when a user recommended balancing the absurd power of magic using classes by making them meticulously track their material components for each spell.
For those unaware, material costs for spells that didn't have an explicit monetary cost listed were generally just flavorful; holdovers from Gary Gygax's day at the helm, basically little Easter eggs in the game. Like Detect Thoughts required you to use 2 copper pieces to cast, e.g. 'penny for your thoughts?', and Fireball required you to use bat guano (known to be high in sulfur content) and saltpeter (chemically combined they create an exothermic reaction IRL).
Anyway, your wizard or whatever was expected to buy a spell component pouch for a few gold and that pouch was assumed to have all the basic material components they'd need for most spells in limitless quantity. Spells in D&D can be incredibly powerful and versatile in their use, and the most powerful builds in the game all involve casting magic. Well, this user suggested balancing those spells by making wizards have to spend time gathering their individual material components. Want to cast Fireball? Spend a few days scraping bat shit off the cave floor, etc.
The problem with this rationale is that it doesn't really solve any problems. Wizards are still just as powerful, but now the player has to go out of their way, detracting from the campaign and story, so they can scrape their spell juice off the dungeon floor. Grod argued the following:

Tie this back into PoE already!

Yes, sorry. Thanks for putting up with my rambling.
I kinda feel like harvest is like this - A terrible implementation of a mechanic that GGG (i.e. Chris Wilson) hates (i.e. thinks is 'bad' for the game). It highlights a massive problem with itemization and crafting in this game.
Way too much character power is tied up in gear as compared to skills and passives. And Harvest crafts are so powerful because other crafting tools in PoE are are way too random, but the power creep in items over the years has made it way too appealing (various influence mods for example). Crafting most items is a gamble, plain and simple. Gambling is just not appealing to many people, and it can get expensive very fast. It's layers upon layers of RNG for even the chance of getting a decent item, some of which can be build-enabling, and there are very few deterministic methods of getting what you want. It's far easier to just buy a powerful item like that from someone else. Of course, that can't be done for SSF players, but even in trade league it can be problematic when GGG balances the game around meta-builds (supply and demand means you might not get to enjoy playing your build because upgrades are too expensive).
GGG wants the game to be like this. They want you to engage in the skinner box of gambling RNG they've designed. Harvest just doesn't jive with how they want you to build your character, but it's immensely popular for anyone who hates gambling and wants to build their character in a predictable and targeted way. Their solution was to leave it in the game but make it as cumbersome and obnoxious to engage with as possible, so it becomes a massive opportunity cost to do so.
You find a grove in a map. Cue 20 to 30 minutes of reviewing your stash and gear for possible upgrades and reviewing craft options for valuable ones that might be sold on TFT, etc. It completely disrupts the flow of the game and you can barely save enough valuable crafts for one or two side builds. When you finally do get one of the few good craft options, you might not even have something to use it on! Ultimately it's far more time-efficient to sell your good crafts (using 3rd party mechanisms, of course) and just keep playing the game.

How does this affect me, SaneExile?

The system affects the game exactly how Grod proposes:
The inappropriate powergamer figures out how to circumvent the restriction. His power remains the same.
PoE isn't a collaborative tabletop game like D&D, so "inappropriate powergamer" is, well, an inappropriate name for this group. Optimizing gameplay in PoE is perfectly reasonable and encouraged. But people who trade crafts in large volume on TFT or are in massive guilds throwing around thousands of exalts are not your average optimizer, and are not affected by this cumbersome barrier to entry. They find the optimal solution and just incorporate it into their gameplay and profit off it massively.
The reasonable player either figures out how to circumvent the restriction (rendering it moot), avoids the class (turning it into a ban) or suffers through it. His power remains the same and/or his enjoyment goes down.
Reasonable player -> average PoE player. The distinction between these two groups can get fuzzy, but it's hard to argue that someone playing 40 hours per week and someone playing 10 hours per week can achieve the same levels of effectiveness. Practice makes perfect, and practice takes time. Those in large communities are, likewise, not really playing the same game as the solo players (e.g. aura-bots, trade groups, etc.). For some, efficiency is measured in chaos per hour. For a few, it can be exalts per hour. This group is very much the former.
The new player avoids the class or suffers through it. His enjoyment goes down.
Class -> game mechanic. In this case, I'm sure a lot of people just pretend the Sacred Grove doesn't exist. Harvest is a thing that other people do. And if they do choose to engage with it, its cumbersomeness and complexity means their overall enjoyment of PoE is diminished. I couldn't even begin to explain the system to someone new to the game, at least in a reasonable manner that doesn't sound like a college economics lecture.

Conclusions

So, average people either suffer through harvest's implementation because it's so damn useful, or they avoid it and suffer FOMO or other gambling-induced psychological issues because the power-players in the community are cranking out incredibly OP gear on the trading market. Lose-Lose. This isn't unique to harvest, it's just the most obvious with this crafting system in the game. Crafting in general is fucked up, when you really consider how it's designed to prey on gambling addiction.
This might not be a problem in the short term (obviously you don't need the helmet posted above to make specters work), but in the long term it throws off the balance of the game through power creep. The Raise Specters gem was meganerfed this league, but it's definitely still playable, and with items like this, it's not even that much weaker than before. Essentially, the power of the skill was offloaded from the gem to PoE's itemization system, and the barrier to OPness is that much higher. The rich get richer and the average market has one less meta build.
GGG really fucked up Harvest, but it's only because Harvest highlighted just how fucked up crafting in this game is. Super powerful crafts have always been something only the PoE rich engage with regularly and with any significant profit. Harvest, for its league at least, let more casual players engage with that system. And the power creep ended up being so massive that they hamstrung it every chance they got.
Ultimately, GGG's implementation ends up hurting the whole game because of Grod's Law - the benefits of it are minimized while the annoyance is maximized. It's possible we can benefit from some stopgap solutions, like more horticrafting station space, tradeable crafts (like beasts), etc., but many of these come with their own host of issues. They're just bandaids on the crafting mechanic as a whole, which is a product of the itemization design.
TL;DR, thanks for coming to my TEDTalk. General disclaimer that this is my personal opinion of the state of the game, one that I've put way too much time into. It's still fun in a lot of ways, but the more I play the more I see problematic design features creeping their way into the game.
Edit: Well this took off. I've been trying to address arguments from you all as best I can, but there's one I noticed in particular keeps coming up and I think my main post didn't clarify my stance as well as it could've:
I'm not against the idea of RNG. Randomness in itself is not a problem for this genre or most games in general. I am however very much against the argument that, 'well the entire game is randomness so more randomness is fine.' I've tried to address that in this comment, which I'll link instead of reiterating.
submitted by ecstatic1 to pathofexile [link] [comments]

batting average means video

Batting average in finance measures an investment manager's ability to meet or beat an index. A batting average of 50% is a minimum for investment success. batting average. n. Baseball. A measure of a batter's performance obtained by dividing the total of base hits by the number of times at bat, not including walks, sacrifices, times hit by a pitch, or times interfered with by the catcher. American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fifth Edition. Batting-average meaning. Batting-average. meaning. A measure of a batter's performance obtained by dividing the total of base hits by the number of times at bat, not including walks, sacrifices, times hit by a pitch, or times interfered with by the catcher. Batting averages are almost always rounded this way. When a baseball fan mentions a batting average of "three hundred," she means 0.300. You can calculate batting averages to four or more decimal places, but this doesn't have much use beyond breaking ties. What is a Batting Average? A batting average is simply the number of hits a player has divided by the number of at-bats he has had during the season, according to The Internet Hitting Coach. The... Batting average definition, a measure of the batting ability of a player, obtained by dividing the number of base hits by the number of official times at bat and carrying out the result to three decimal places. A player with 100 base hits in 300 times at bat has a batting average of 0.333. See more. The batting average is usually represented not as a percentage (i.e. 28.0%), but instead as a decimal number with three places after the decimal. A batting average of 1.000 means that the player gets a hit every time he comes to bat, and an average of .000 means the player has no hits. John Means Stats, Fantasy & News. Married, wife's name is Caroline; she is a former professional soccer player...Signed by Adrian Dorsey...Originally selected by the Atlanta Braves in the 46th round of the 2011 First-Year Player Draft (did not sign)...Attended West Virginia University, Fort Scott Community College (KS), and Gardner-Edgerton (KS) HS...His younger brother, Jake, was drafted by ... batting average definition: 1. in cricket, the average number of runs scored by a batsman in each innings 2. in baseball, the…. Learn more. Cambridge Dictionary +Plus Definition. One of the oldest and most universal tools to measure a hitter's success at the plate, batting average is determined by dividing a player's hits by his total at-bats for a number ...

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batting average means

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