NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.

/r/QOTSA Official Band of the Week 39: THE BEATLES, PART ONE

As we continue the month of Banuary with our focus on bands with the letter B, we’ve come to a biggie. So big. Very very big. Like, so big they are like BIG, with a bang, and a capital B-I-G.
Not small.
BIG.
So big are they that we are going to do our first-ever two week focus on one band. This is especially timely right now, because their last-ever concert was on January 30th, 52 years ago.
For the purposes of these write ups, we are splitting their music into the Red Album and the Blue Album.
If you get it, you get it.
This week we will focus on their formation and their first seven studio albums: Please Please Me, With the Beatles, A Hard Day’s Night, Beatles for Sale, Help, Rubber Soul and Revolver.
Next week will be all about when their music gets all concept-y and experimental, and we will then focus on Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band, The Beatles (which most people call the White Album), Yellow Submarine, Abbey Road and Let It Be, as well as the dissolution of perhaps the most important band in Rock history.
So there you go. The next two weeks are all about a little known underground band from Liverpool called THE BEATLES.
About Them
You may be a fan. You may not. But you have definitely heard of the four lads from Liverpool who revolutionized music in the 1960’s.
Paul McCartney was born in Liverpool in 1942. At age 12, while attending grammar school, he met George Harrison. The two connected immediately. Harrison was a year younger than McCartney (which can be huge when you are kids) but the friendship was an immediate and life long one.
Though McCartney was encouraged to take piano lessons and was given a trumpet as a child, he preferred to learn music by ear. He was in a church choir as a youth. But it was not until he started listening to Rock music that anything stuck. At age 14, feeling inspired, he traded the trumpet for an acoustic guitar.
He sucked at it. Things just did not feel natural.
One day, walking home, he saw an advertisement for a concert by Slim Whitman. He noticed that in the picture, Whitman was playing left handed. After a proverbial light bulb moment, he went home and re-strung his guitar to be just like Whitman. Reversing the instrument was the ticket. He quickly learned to play and began to compose. At age 15, he had already written the melody to When I’m Sixty-Four.
John Lennon was born in 1940, making him two years older than McCartney. His middle name, Winston, was after the famous Winston Churchill. Lennon, who notoriously became a terrible father and husband, unsurprisingly had awful examples as a child. His father, Alfred Lennon, was in the merchant navy and would be away for up to half a year. During one of these absences, his mother, Julia, got pregnant from an affair with another man. When his dad returned, the parental relationship absolutely disintegrated.
His father wanted to take him out of Britain entirely to go live in New Zealand. After a blowout with his now estranged wife, the elder Lennon took his son to Blackpool to leave England. But mom followed, and confronted the pair. What ensued was a scarring moment where Lennon was forced to choose between his mother and his father. According to accounts, he twice chose to live with his father - but when his mom burst into tears, he changed his mind and stayed with his mom. His father then left and would not see his son again for over 20 years.
John Lennon was five years old at the time.
So, growing up, Lennon’s example of parenting was a shitty one. But nonetheless, he grew deeply attached to his mom, as she was the only constant in his life. On the other hand, he grew into that kid that was a complete shit disturber. Envious of others who had a dad around, and angry that he did not, he became the archetypal rebellious teenager with a chip on his shoulder.
His mom bought him a guitar when he was 16. He started noodling around with it, and found quickly that he had some proficiency with it. That year, 1956, he started his first band, The Quarrymen. This was the band that would later become The Beatles. A 15 year old Paul McCartney joined the band as a rhythm guitarist in 1957, and convinced Lennon to let the even younger George Harrison join later that year.
Unfortunately, Lennon’s mother Julia never saw the success her son would have in music. She was killed when she was hit by a car while she was walking home. So Lennon really did have awful parental examples and tragedy as he grew up: an absentee father who abandoned him, and a cheating mother who loved him but was killed far too young. This broken home would scar him and poison his future relationships. But the immediate reaction to the tragedy of his mother’s death was a deep dive into alcoholism, rage, fighting, and trauma. You know, positive things. Lennon dropped out of the Liverpool College of Art, where he went to school. All he had left was the guitar his mom gave him, the friends in his band, and the ability to maybe make some music.
George Harrison, in contrast, had a terrific, stable upbringing in a loving home.
Jackass. You don’t need to flex on John that hard right now, George.
The youngest of four children, he was a bright student who enjoyed school but was somewhat disappointed in the lack of music education. Like McCartney and Lennon, he got a guitar in 1956 and taught himself to play. Harrison turned out to be by far the best guitarist in the band, and a gifted songwriter.
Unlike the affable McCartney or the rebellious Lennon, Harrison would be called ‘the quiet Beatle’. He would pour all of his energy and emotion into his instrument. Harrison could certainly sing, and in any other band he would have likely been the lead singer - but somehow, instinctively maybe, he knew that Lennon and McCartney were both better singers and both better songwriters. Where someone with more ego would probably have left the band to find a different creative outlet, Harrison looked on this as an opportunity instead to become the best musician in the band. Loyal, creative, industrious and gifted, he was the perfect addition to The Quarrymen.
Stuart Sutcliffe was working as a garbage man when he met John Lennon at the Liverpool College of Art. It was how he paid for his own tuition. Sutcliffe was not really a musician - but he was a talented painter. He remained close with Lennon after Lennon dropped out of school following the death of his mother. Despite not being deeply invested in music, Lennon leaned into Sutcliffe to get him to join The Quarrymen. Sutcliffe managed to sell one of his paintings and used the profits to buy a bass guitar. He and Lennon moved in together in 1960.
Sutcliffe’s playing was rudimentary at best (insert your shot at bass players here). But even by playing 1-4-5 on a chord he was able to add to the sound of the band, and to anchor the rhythm section.
Perhaps Sutcliffe’s most lasting impact on the band - aside from his friendship with Lennon - was his influence on the name. The Quarrymen did not sit well with the young artist. He instead insisted that they rechristen themselves as ‘The Beatals’ as a tribute to ~~Beatal~~ Buddy Holly and the Crickets. The band toyed with this alternate spelling and then instead went with The Silver Beetles, and then The Silver Beatles, finally settling on the spelling we know the best with The Beatles.
The newly named band was only lacking one member: a drum machine.
But it was the 60s, so they had to settle for Pete Best.
Best also grew up in Liverpool, but unlike his bandmates, he was born in Madras, India to British parents. The family left there in 1944 during the WWII in what can only have been the worst possible time to go on a cruise. They settled in Liverpool, where Best grew up. Best’s mother Mona apparently won a bundle of cash on a wild bet at the races and decided to use the money to purchase a large house in Liverpool. The place had previously been the home of a private club, and had a large entertainment space below. Best convinced his mother to open this space and turn it into a club.
The Quarrymen played this venue, called The Casbah Coffee Club, on a number of occasions. Best fell in love with the idea of being a musician. He got his mom to buy him a drum kit and formed his own band. Unsurprisingly, since his family owned the place, they became the house band at The Casbah.
But while Best had his own venue and lots of work, his band was quickly going nowhere and broke up. The Beatles, on the other hand, just got a manager and a ton of road gigs in Hamburg, Germany. They needed a drummer, and they needed one quick. Best gave up a chance to become a teacher to go and drum for the band. Turns out he was the only one in the band that spoke passable German, so he was invaluable.
It was Malcolm Gladwell that famously pointed out (and used The Beatles as an example) that it takes about 10,000 hours to become really, really good at something.
For the next two years or so, the band lived for extended periods of time in Hamburg, making their living playing live music. They became seasoned performers and musicians. They were able to hone their craft in small clubs, playing the same venues night after night after night.
During this formative period, Sutcliffe decided that this particular grind was not for him. He tapped out to go to art school in Germany instead.
Yes, there is a German art school joke there. You know it and I know it. But instead of that humor, there is only tragedy. Sutcliffe died in 1962 of a sudden cerebral hemorrhage. Unsurprisingly, the death hit Lennon the hardest. He kept pieces of Sutcliffe’s art in his home until his own untimely passing.
McCartney moved to play bass. The Beatles were now a four piece. They finished their second year in Hamburg and came back home a far more polished and professional group, possessing the kind of credibility only experience can bring. They started playing local gigs, most notably at the famous Cavern Club.
Very soon, the buzz around them was huge. At the Cavern Club, they were seen and ‘discovered’ by a local music writer and record store owner named Brian Epstein. He convinced the band to let him be their manager.
Epstein got the band signed to the EMI record label, and under the tutelage of legendary producer George Martin.
Martin knew - just knew - that The Beatles were lightning in a bottle. But he was just as sure that one of them was simply not as good as the others. Martin had the band in to do a recording session and it was abundantly clear that Best’s drumming style was not going to transfer well to vinyl.
According to one version, Best had learned to play drums as loud as possible at the urging of McCartney and out of necessity in the venues they were playing in Hamburg. Because of this, his style was completely unsuitable for studio work. According to another version, he never really gelled with the band, despite all those concerts in Germany. He would not get the signature haircut. He would not wear the signature outfits of those early days. Either way, Martin told McCartney, Harrison, and Lennon that in order to make a record, they needed to hire a session drummer instead.
After some deliberation among the three, they asked their new manager Brian Epstein to fire Best.
The Beatles were not without a growing fan base in Liverpool. What makes this even more interesting, according to some accounts, is that Best was at the time the most popular Beatle, with tons of young fans. A bitter Best would speculate that this was the real reason behind his dismissal - that Lennon especially could not stand being overshadowed and being less popular than someone else in his own band. The boys themselves would refute this story, and say that even in the beginning, recording music was really at the core of the band - not just performance - and for that reason alone, Best did not cut it.
Either way, Best was out.
So now they needed a drummer. Again.
Richard Starkey was born in Liverpool in 1940. He was an only child. He was raised by overprotective parents who were fixated on his upbringing. Either by coincidence or consequence, young Ritchie was a sickly child. This caused stress in his household. His father did not cope well with this, and simply pulled a Homer Simpson and went on benders lasting several days. Predictably, his parent’s marriage collapsed.
Starkey was 6.
But the divorce of his mom and dad was not the worst thing that happened to the kid at age 6. He had to go into hospital for an appendectomy. The operation went poorly, and he contracted peritonitis and lapsed into a coma which lasted for days. He was bedridden for 12 months during his recovery. He fell behind in school and it took him years to catch up. Just as he did, in 1953, he contracted fucking tuberculosis (for which there was no vaccine at the time) and had to go into isolation in a sanatorium for two years.
Because tuberculosis patients are notoriously incapacitated and weak, part of the treatment for them is constant activity. Starkey joined the hospital band and learned to drum. He fell further and further behind at school, but became a better and better drummer. As he really had nothing else to do, he took to drumming like ~~an octopus to a garden~~ a fish to water. Lennon, McCartney, and Harrison all came to their instruments in a kind of haphazard way and got their 10,000 hours in Hamburg; Starkey literally spent two years drumming before any of them had even touched a fretboard.
He got his own drum kit in 1957, a second hand affair. He joined a couple of local bands and it was here that he took the stage name Ringo Starr. His drum solos were billed as ‘Starr Time’. One of his bands, Rory Storm and the Hurricanes, were given top billing over The Beatles at a show in Germany. Starr met Lennon, McCartney, Harrison, and Best there. They all shared a Liverpool background and heritage, though Starr’s illnesses had made it impossible for him to have moved in the same circles.
So when The Beatles fired Best and needed a new drummer, Starr was the right man from the right place at the right time. He was asked to quit The Hurricanes and join The Beatles.
In what can only be described as the best decision of his life, Starr agreed.
Starr’s dynamics and feel were perfect for studio sessions. The final piece of the band was in place - the line up was set. George Martin got the band into the studio to record their first single, Love Me Do. They followed that up with Please Please Me.
Both songs were released as singles in Britain and got immediate buzz and airplay. Their label, EMI-Parlophone, knew they had a good thing on their hands and really, really wanted an album. George Martin went to the boys to ask what other material they had. They only really had their current live set. Martin decided to get them into a studio. Please Please Me (1963), their debut album, was recorded in less than 13 hours and was essentially their current live set.
The record was an absolute smash.
Consider the songs on it that are now classics: I Saw Her Standing There. Please Please Me. Love Me Do. Do You Want to Know a Secret. Not to mention the hit cover (and Ferris Bueller dance tune) Twist and Shout.
Very few debut albums have ever been as popular. It immediately went to number one on the British charts. The tour in support sold out at every venue. The band had arrived, and soon demand was high for a follow up.
With the Beatles (1963), their second record, was the first one released in North America. Like its predecessor, it was a mixture of covers and original material. Whether by accident or design, this made the album appealing to both European and North American audiences. The cover of Chuck Berry’s Roll Over Beethoven was a particular hit, was sung by George Harrison, and was a favorite of Lennon and McCartney. It showcased the Rock influence and allowed the kids from Liverpool to put their own spin on a new classic. Add to that the covers of Smokey Robinson’s You Really Got a Hold on Me, Barrett Strong’s Money (That’s What I Want) and The Marvelettes’ Please Mister Postman, and you had instant American appeal.
Of course, not every song was a cover. All My Loving was a Lennon/McCartney tune that hit number one on some international charts. Critics called it “...arguably the best LP-only track the Beatles did before 1964,” and stated that if it had actually been released in America, it would have easily hit #1.
No matter. The follow up to their debut was strong. The songs got amazing airplay. Kids in America loved the band and sang along. There was nothing even close to them in Pop and Rock. The only act that was even a parallel in popularity was Elvis Presley. Famously, Ed Sullivan had the band perform on his late night show. It turned out to be a TV moment bigger than anything before. Fans screamed and lost their minds. Their haircuts were suddenly everywhere. Their musicianship, their good looks and their fresh takes on American tunes meant that they were almost instantly popular.
A Hard Day’s Night (1964) was their first complete album without any covers. It is much more Poppy than the 50’s-inspired Rock records that preceded it. Here, The Beatles captured the hearts of their teenage audience and became international stars. Right from the signature chord that opens the title track on the disc, listeners knew that they were hearing something brand new. The title of the song and album came from a malapropism that Ringo once said, and that everyone picked up on and loved.
Several songs from the album shot to number one on the charts, one right after the other. I Should Have Known Better was a catchy little number that got lots of airplay by being a B-Side to the title track. And I Love Her became that slow song that got played at school dances around the world. And Can’t Buy me Love became one of the biggest songs of the decade.
The Beatles did not just support the album with a tour - there was a film that was part of the package as well. Not only were the Fab Four writing new music, touring and performing - they were “acting” in movies.
So you might have picked up on this, but The Beatles were doing pretty okay. At this point the band were everywhere. The radio. The TV. The cinema. They were on products. You could buy action figures. There were comic books and lunch boxes and wrapping paper and coloring books. This was Beatlemania. The boys from Liverpool were now more than a music group - they were a cultural phenomenon who, in America, led in music what has come to be known as The British Invasion.
Beatles for Sale, their fourth record, came out later in 1964. In contrast to previous releases, the Fab Four appear on the cover looking more sombre. Everyone was waiting for another record. But the band were tired - not just because of the grind of recording, touring and performing, but because what they thought was going to be a modest career in music had absolutely ballooned beyond anyone’s expectations. Lennon and McCartney were an incredibly prolific songwriting team, George Harrison was an incredible songsmith in his own right, and Ringo was the drummer. But the band simply did not have enough new material for an album.
Instead of waiting, they did some covers. Chuck Berry’s Rock and Roll Music was a made-for-radio track that got heavy rotation in the USA. Honey Don’t was a Carl Perkins cover sung by Ringo. Words of Love was a Buddy Holly cover, with the band paying homage to the artist who inspired their name.
Ironically, the two biggest songs from these recording sessions didn’t even make it on the album. I Feel Fine became a non-album single. It was recorded during the sessions for Beatles for Sale but did not make the cut. And Eight Days a Week made it onto the European version of the album, but was omitted from the American version. In retrospect, the album seems more like a release to meet the needs of the label to continue to cash in on Beatlemania than a creative project by the Fab Four.
The peak of their run as a group of teen idols - and really the peak of Beatlemania - was 1965’s Help! It was accompanied by the movie of the same name, and was presented as a film soundtrack. The movie was a hit, as was the single of the same name off the album. Notably, only one song on the record was over three minutes in length.
But what was really interesting about this particular release is that even though the songs were short, made-for-radio affairs, the complexity and depth of those songs were unlike anything else that the band had written so far. While the title track was pure bubblegum Pop, and tracks like Ticket to Ride were much the same, Lennon’s You’ve Got to Hide Your Love Away most certainly was not. This song was sombre and sad and full of regret, and was either about lost love or the death of his mother, depending on your interpretation.
But even that great song was not the standout on the album.
If The Beatles had never created any other music, Yesterday would still be an incomparable masterpiece of songwriting. This McCartney tune, just over two minutes in length, holds the record for being the most covered song in all of history.
ALL OF HISTORY.
Jesus.
The melody famously came to McCartney in a dream, and he was panicked that it may have belonged to someone else. The song’s working title was ‘scrambled eggs’, and the music came before the lyrics. Just think of singing Yesterday with the working lyrics of ‘scrambled eggs...oh my baby how I love your legs…’ McCartney stitched down the real haunting lyrics, and the band tried to perform the song with their lineup.
It didn’t work.
It wasn’t until producer George Martin suggested recording it with a string quartet that everything clicked with the song. McCartney did the vocals and a true classic was created.
Another important landmark had been reached with Yesterday: the band learned that they could do things in the studio that could transcend what they could perform live. Nowadays, it is no big deal for the studio album to sound different than the live performance, and to have various session players come in to tweak the recordings. In fact, the band had had backing instruments on other songs, but never to this extent. Until the album Help! - and really, until the song Yesterday - The Beatles had been a standard four-piece Pop band cranking out hits. Now they became songwriters who were able to explore ever more complex arrangements and emotions in music.
This transformation of the band from teen idols to actual serious musicians took place largely on the album Rubber Soul, which was released in 1965. It also marks the beginning of their open relationship with recreational drugs, though the influence of those substances on their music is somewhat muted. Retrospectively, it is easy to see that the songs that are on the album are not simply Pop tunes. Day Tripper is not about going for a car ride (It took me soooooo long to find out -- but I found out…) and Norwegian Wood is about an extramarital affair that Lennon was having that went very badly. McCartney would say about the ending of that song that it “...could have meant I lit a fire to keep myself warm, and wasn’t the decor of the house wonderful? But it didn’t, it meant I burned the fucking place down as and act of revenge…” Norwegian Wood was also the first truly popular song to incorporate a sitar.
Simply put, Rubber Soul showed that The Beatles were maturing as artists. Even more, it was clear that the band were thinking about albums as concepts, rather than just a group of catchy songs. Everything on the album was more sophisticated and complex. Nowhere Man and Michelle and Girl and the hauntingly sad In My Life were clear evidence of this.
After a long period of grinding, the band had levelled up.
All of this work peaked with The Beatles’ seventh studio album, Revolver, which was released in 1966. Seven albums in four years. For perspective, QotSA have only released seven studio albums in almost 23 years as a band, and August 2021 will mark 4 years since the release of Villains.
Revolver saw the boys from Liverpool mature as artists and begin to truly experiment with music. It is considered by many to be the band’s greatest album, surpassing even Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band. To many, it is a capstone to their career and their artistic high water mark. In 2004, one critic went so far as to say that this was the “...best album the Beatles ever made, which means the best album by anybody.”
This would also be the last album that they toured behind.
What is clearly different on Revolver is the band’s liberal use of ~~imagination tablets~~ LSD. I mean, just think of the concept behind the Ringo Starr song Yellow Submarine. Hey boys, if that song is not influenced by acid, then no song is. And if you watched the cartoon movie (which I personally believe set animation back by about 20 years and did not come out until 1968) you know I am correct. Revolver opened the doors of music for Psychedelic Rock and for the use of drugs to influence the creative process. Not that using drugs was particularly new; but now going out and getting high to create music was an open and acknowledged practice.
Hmm. I wonder if any bands ever went out into the desert and did something similar.
Anyways, catchy tracks like Taxman (which was the first beatles song with political undertones ) and Good Day Sunshine and Got to Get You Into My Life make the album a true Lennon/McCartney classic, but it is the haunting gut-punch of [Eleanor Rigby] that presaged all of the sadness and loneliness that bands like Radiohead are still doing today.
Revolver was a masterpiece. The challenge was to follow that album up.
And that’s when things got really interesting.
Links to QOTSA
Josh Homme and Sir Paul McCartney both worked on the Dave Grohl project Sound City.
Apparently, McCartney was almost a member of Them Crooked Vultures - but learned from Dave Grohl that John Paul Jones already had the gig.
McCartney also went out of his way to play a show out in the desert for Josh and 300 fans. Imagine Sir Paul McCartney performing a show just for you. That is just amazing.
Their Music
Please Please Me
Love Me Do
I Saw Her Standing There
Twist and Shout - The famous Ferris Bueller scene.
All My Loving
A Hard Day’s Night
Can’t Buy Me Love
Eight Days a Week
Help!
You’ve Got to Hide Your Love Away
Yesterday
Day Tripper
Norwegian Wood
In My Life
Yellow Submarine
Taxman
Eleanor Rigby
Show Them Some Love
/Beatles - a huge subreddit with over 125,000 members.
/TheBeatles - almost 26,000 members.
Previous Posts
Band of the Week #1-25
The Jimi Hendrix Experience
Black Flag
Alain Johannes
Pixies
Truckfighters
Melvins
Muse
Stone Temple Pilots
Black Sabbath
Baroness
Black Rebel Motorcycle Club
The Black Angels
The Black Keys

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The Starlink Theory: A DeepDive into SPAC(e)

The Starlink Theory: A DeepDive into Spac(e)
Tl,dr: I believe PSTH is merging with Starlink. In this post, I will give the main arguments. For my fellow WSB-tards: 🚀 🚀💎🙌💎🙌
To keep it somewhat condensed, I will quickly go over a few points that have been made countless of times, such as the PSTH target criteria and the PSTH Board.
Will Musk take Starlink public?
Of course, Starlink can’t be PSTH’s acquisition target if it has no plans or is even fundamentally opposed to being a publicly traded company.
So, please consider this timeline that was posted earlier. I’ll make some additional comments.
The takeway here is: March 2020: Given it Zero thought. September 2020: We will probably IPO Starlink, but only several years in the future when revenue growth is smooth & predictable.
Admittedly, this does not scream ‘public company in 2021’. However, it is remarkable that something that was given ‘zero thought’ before, is six months later all of a sudden all but a sure thing. And if the Starlink deployment is accelerating, why couldn’t the same be true for the timeline of going public? Note there are now over 800 satellites up in the constellation, which translates to ‘moderate internet coverage’, and that the aim is to have ‘broadband service in Northern United States and Southern Canada before this year ends.’
Why a SPAC?
· Immediate access to billions in capital
· Putting small retail investors first
· Maintaining control of the company
Let’s go over these one by one.
Access to capital: Competition is coming
Money helps you stay ahead of the competition. Especially in this business. Space is all about first mover advantage and having deep pockets. So far, zero companies in this space did not go bankrupt. And Competition is coming. Consider this quote from the Observer about Amazon’s Project Kuiper:
‘Although the effort is still in the early stages, it could pose a real threat to Starlink with Amazon’s vast resources to scale up operation at hard-to-match prices.’
The reason Oneweb, another competitor, went bankrupt is the Covid-crisis and them running out of capital. They have now been revived, but their new constellation is significantly less ambitious than what was previously proposed. Cnbc goes into more detail about the threat Oneweb poses to Starlink. Even the European Union is getting in on the action.
As of right now, Starlink is ahead of the competition. The only way to stay that way is investing in the future.
Putting small retail investors first
PSTH is an investor-friendly SPAC. For the sake of brevity, I will not argue point right now, rather I’ll treat it as an assumption. If you want to read about this, try this, this and this article. Below are some of the main points.
The Bloomberg article sums up some of the dangers of SPACS, then mentions this:
Meanwhile, some SPAC sponsors have started driving a harder bargain with the hedge funds by offering fewer dilutive warrants. If shareholders of Bill Ackman’s new SPAC, Pershing Square Tontine Holdings, decide to redeem their shares once it’s found a merger target, they’ll forfeit a chunk of the warrants to shareholders who stay loyal. Ackman is proud his SPAC has attracted “very few hedge funds,” which is ironic given that he founded one.
The Jonathan Hung article mentions this:
‘SPACs can also be a good strategic vehicle for investors as well. Remember, investors can usually get their money back if the SPAC in question doesn’t like the acquisition target that ends up getting purchased or if the two-year time limit ticks by. Furthermore, promoters usually keep hefty fees for any equity that does get raised. Some SPACs have this as high as 20%.”
However, PSTH is the exception that does not keep 20%:
With SPACs, people who invest can typically get their money back if they don’t like the acquisition target that gets picked, or if the SPAC doesn’t find anything to buy. Promoters usually keep 20% of the equity that gets raised—a massive chunk of investor money. But the blank-check company formed by Ackman says it won’t do this; Ackman argues that his SPAC is better aligned with investor interests than its predecessors.
This is also relevant to Starlink:
‘The traditional route to going public is too slow for companies that want to cash in on hype’
And this:
Ritter, meanwhile, thinks the interest in direct listings and SPACs is mainly born out of dissatisfaction with the expense of doing things the old way. “I view it as a response to the greed of investment bankers,” Ritter said. Wall Street financiers have been “leaving too much money on the table.”
Musk has said he wants to put small retail investors first when Starlink goes public, and that ‘you can hold him to it’. Musk likes the fans, he doesn’t like money manager and analysts. Consider this article, for example:
To begin with, Musk’s company hosts an nontraditional quarterly call with shareholders: After making a short statement about Tesla’s results, he then fields questions from anonymous retail investors — with Wall Street’s biggest firms asking questions last.
“I do think that a lot of the retail investors actually have deeper and more accurate insights than many of the big institutional investors and certainly they have better insights than many of the analysts.”
Later in that call, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi asked Musk where Tesla was in terms of its capital requirements.
“Excuse me? Next. Boring, bonehead questions are not cool,” Musk replied.
I pointed out that doing a SPAC has some clear advantages for Starlink, namely A) Access to capital and B) Looking out for ~~WSB~~ the small retail investors.
Note that PSTH is A) The most investo friendly SPAC out there, due to the Tontine structure and B) The only SPAC big enough to possibly deal with Starlink.
Maintaining control of the company
This should be self-evident. The whole reason Starlink will go public is to give the public a chance of owning a part of SpaceX, without actually ceding any control over the ambitious SpaceX timeline (colonization of Mars) to people who are interested in short term profits. Musk would rather deal with fanboy stockholders than with big banks and hedge funds who might try to tell him what to do. See above.
The PSTH Board
In a previous Deep Dive, it has been pointed out that Jackie Reses being on the PSTH-board was not just a positive for a Stripe merger, but also for Starlink. I agree with this. However, he left the best part out: Jackie Reses was also on the board of Virgin Galactic. This company went public through a SPAC while she was on the board (by the way, Momentus also went public via SPAC in october. This article actually predicts this will spark a wave of space companies going public.)
Also, consider that PSTH-board member Michael Ovitz invested in space startup Relativity.
Crazy Speculative Twitter DD, mostly for entertainment purposes
I’m not really into the who-follows-who and who-liked-what style-Twitter DD. Yet I noticed a few tweets I thought were funny or interesting in this context.
Consider this one by Jackie Reses. Seems like it could be a subliminal shot at everyone’s least favorite merger target: Subway. Yes this is all speculative and far-fetched and crazy and I absolutely don’t mind if you completely dismiss it. But keep in mind these board members have to play by SEC-rules. If she wanted to comfort investors who are afraid the target is Subway, without getting the SEC on her ass, this would be one way to do it, don’t you agree?
Then, the same day, she also posts this, in response to an article about Cathie Woods’ Space ETF:
‘And u/CathieDWood is 'da bomb so worth watching her moves. u/ARKInvest’
So, no love for Subway, but love for space stocks?
The ARK/Cathie Wood Connection
This brings me to my next point.
As you are well aware, the ARK-fund is starting a new Space-fund. The question is: why do this now? Of course, space stocks are hot, but Momentus, Virgin Galactic and so on are not new. Theory: could it be a way to capitalize on Starlink going public? Keep in mind that Cathie Wood is one of the biggest Tesla bulls there is. It is ARK’s biggest holding. And she’s not just big on Tesla, she’s a fan of Musk as well. If Starlink went public, I would assume it would be the largest holding in the new Ark Space ETF.
The Seth Klarman Connection
As has been pointed out a few times before, Seth Klarman’s Baupost Group does not only have a sizable stake in PSTH (17.5 million stocks). Throughout the last few decades, he has also build up a sizable position in satellite company Viasat – he is their largest investor. While previous DD’s have stated this fact and underlined it’s importance, so far I haven’t been able to find any theories on what this would mean. As in, why is this significant? How does Klarman investing in satellites and PSTH somehow mean that PSTH also has anything to do with satellites? After all, when you’re managing billions it’s not uncommon to, you know, have a diversified portfolio. Baupost owns 32 different stocks.
So let’s assume for a second that PSTH is Starlink. What incentive would Klarman have to invest in both? Well, Starlink is a big, big threat for Viasat. It might make it’s current satellite operations completely obsolete and is far ahead in creating a LEO constellation. As SeekingAlpha (yeah I know) puts it: You can’t go long SpaceX, but you can go short Viasat. Please take a look at the bulletpoints in the summary, because they tell the whole story.
Also consider this article for example. Elon Musk on Viasat:
“Starlink ‘poses a hazard’ to Viasat’s profits, more like it. Stop the sneaky moves, Charlie Ergen!”
Klarman, howevery, clearly can’t go short Viasat. His position in Viasat is way too big to unwind. You can’t just take a half a billion in stock to the market and sell it for current marketvalue, yaknow. So what is the best thing he can do? Hedge his bet. Invest in Starlink to mitigate this risk.
Musk and Ackman
One of the criteria for the merger target is ‘excellent management’. Ackman has given praise to Musk before. He called him a visionary.
‘"The notion of building a car company to compete with the big car companies is something that on its own is fairly remarkable," Ackman continued. He also noted that running an automobile company and a company that launches rockets into space at the same time impresses him and is remarkable. "If you do that a time when you're building a company to launch rockets into space I think it's even more remarkable," said Ackman.
Ackman owns a Tesla and says it’s the future. he could be a help in finding a destination for his new factory. So he’s willing to work with Musk.
Countering the counterarguments
Too many deepdives simply ignore information or arguments that does not fit their narrative. I believe this is lazy and unconvincing. Therefore, I also wanted to look at all of the counterarguments against it being Starlink - and why they’re ultimately not that convincing to me.
· Starlink does not fit PSTH’ Acquisition Criteria at all
I’m not going to post all of this text again. Here’s the Refresher Course for the 8 criteria.
I believe we can reasonably agree that Starlink checks a few of the boxes.
‘Formidable barriers to entry’ is one of them; however, as discussed before, competition is coming, which makes easy access to billions in funding appealing. However, as far as checking the boxes of PSTH’s target criteria is concerned, consider #2 checked.
I also believe we can put a checkmark at ‘excellent management’. While it can be argued that Musk is too volatile to qualify as such, I previously discussed that Ackman is a fan of him, which invalidates this argument. #8 also checked.
So which boxes doesn’t it check?
As far as #1 is concerned, right now cash flow is difficult to predict, but that has more to do with the implementation and not so much the businessmodel, which is actually fairly straightforward. Also, this part 'however, we are open to considering a company that may, at the time of the initial business combination, be cash-flow negative, if we believe that the business’s cash flow will become positive within a reasonable amount of time' applies to Starlink obviously.
For #3: regulatory barriers are clearing, look at the UK, look at Germany. Also, Airbnb didn't do too well on this criterium and we already know Ackman tried for them. Starlink doesn’t seem to suffer too much from cyclical and macroeconomic risk. Consider this article.
Is Starlink a mature unicorn? To answer, let’s first look at how PSTH defines this concept in the SEC-filing:
‘Over the past decade, many high-quality, venture-backed businesses have achieved "significant scale, market share, competitive dominance and cash flow—we call these companies 'Mature Unicorns.' Many of these companies have chosen to remain private." It stands to reason that Starlink will capture a significant, if not most, of the market share. If you assume this then scale and being dominant in the field speak for themselves. I would argue that Starlink thus fits the definition of a mature unicorn.
However, I get why one would argue it’s not. As of right now, the concept is unproven and the company is not generating any revenue. However, let me counter with this: how many fledgling startups do you know that have send a thousand satellites into orbit and offer beta-access everywhere from native American reservations to the English countryside? Starlink is maturing, fast. Also, it is the most mature company in its field. Consider that the European Union is just now shelling out 7 million euros for a feasibility study.
· Musk doesn’t need the money
This one puzzles me. Satellite constellations are expensive, yo. As Musk himself has pointed out, ‘there have been zero satellite companies that went bankrupt’. Also, one of the reasons Musk is the man is that he’s able to leverage the adoration of the crowd and turn it into $. Look at how much capital Tesla has raised. I believe it’s something like 1-2 rounds of capital raises every year for the last 8 years. Look at SpaceX. A Spac gives him direct access to lots of capital.
· Musk won’t do a SPAC, he doesn’t need Ackman
Why would it about ‘needing’ or ‘not needing’ anyone? As explained before, Musk is not a big fan of hedgefunds, money managers and analysts. If anything, the people Musk doesn’t ‘need’ are the big banks, GS, JPM. Musk likes the fans, the small retail investors.
· Musk won’t do a SPAC, he doesn’t like SPACS
This argument refers solely to this tweet. However, I hardly feel like this constitutes a serious argument, because A) This is a particularly investor-friendly SPAC and B) Musk likes memes, quirky humor and irony. The Starlink-dish is called Dishy McFlatface ffs. This is exactly the kind of tweet he would post if Starlink and PSTH were doing a merger.
· It can’t be Starlink. Don’t be ridiculous. It’s not Starlink. Stop it.
I see a lot of these reactions here, like, ‘it just can’t be Starlink’. To which I counter: why not? Because it seems to good to be true? That’s not an argument. It can be Starlink, for the reasons I pointed out in this post. I think a lot of y’all are ruling out the possibility solely on the grounds of it being too good to be true.

The Death Of Car Ownership: How Tech Is Killing The $3 Trillion Auto Industry

Uber and Lyft were the first to disrupt the $8 trillion global transportation industry by making car ownership less necessary and with the ride-hailing industry now worth $60 billion and on track to top $85 billion by 2023, the transportation revolution is well underway. But Uber and Lyft can't finish what they started.
Their business models are broken. They've failed to grasp the enormity of the parallel revolution in ESG, or "impact" investing. And this is where the disruptors become the disrupted.
A startup that launched in late 2019 in Canada is pushing aggressively into the United States, and it's not just challenging Uber and Lyft--it's challenging the entire auto industry by taking the ride-sharing revolution to the next level.
The company is Facedrive (FD,FDVRF) and it's not only the first in the world to offer a carbon-offset ride-sharing solution that Big ESG Money loves. It's also planning to put another nail in the coffin of traditional car ownership with its recent acquisition of a pioneer in the electric vehicle subscription space. And that's only the very beginning.
Here are 5 reasons to keep a close eye one of the hottest and fastest-moving trends to come out of Canada's "Silicon Valley":
#1 The Transportation Revolution
Facedrive. Washington-based Steer. Energy giant Exelon. These three names have now come together to form the next big challenge to the auto industry.
It took almost a decade for cars sales in the European Union to even begin to recover when Uber and Lyft decimated sales in urban areas. And now, the pandemic could change private car ownership forever because the general idea of pandemic has been irrevocably tied to other "natural disasters" and the fear of climate change.
Chicago-based Steer says it's time for a transportation revolution, and it fully intends to get more people into unconventional cars--without breaking the bank. This offers people the chance to drive a Tesla and other new electric vehicles without the huge expenses that come with owning one.
Even better, Facedrive's acquisition of Steer came with a $2 million strategic investment from energy giant Exelon's wholly-owned subsidiary, Exelorate Enterprises. This could well be a game-changer for the auto industry.
The success of subscription based 'leasing' models is already well documented, and this simple concept will be at the core of the next major disruption in the auto industry. We've already seen it with electric bikes and scooters. But this step will change everything.
This seamless, hassle-free technology is grabbing onto the $250-billion ESG megatrend by giving subscribers access to their own virtual garage of low-emissions vehicles and EVs.
Not only is Steer planning to upend the auto industry by offering an alternative to the tradition of owning, leasing or renting vehicles for everyday use, but it's also promising to give the EV industry itself another boost. And the electric vehicle market could top $800 billion by 2023.

#2 A Key To Airline Response to Covid-19
As COVID-19 continues to rage and the dreaded third wave takes hold, the $7.6T global tourism industry is facing $1 trillion in losses and is expected to shed 100 million jobs by the end of 2020. U.S. airlines alone lost $12 billion just in the second quarter.
Air Canada, for one, is taking pre-emptive measures ... and again, Facedrive is a leader on the front line here: On October 7th, the airline giant signed a deal with Facedrive to launch a pilot project for its employees using proprietary COVID-19 contact tracing technology, TraceSCAN.
TraceSCAN Wearables combine complex algorithms in an AI-enabled mobile application with wearable devices built on the industry standard nRF52 Bluetooth chipset. Air Canada isn't the only major player taking the TraceSCAN plunge...
The Government of Ontario lent its support to TraceSCAN back in July because it's the only feasible technology that will help masses of government employees who are back to work to trace contacts who have COVID-19. And now, talks with other airlines are in motion, and the news flow is expected to be fast and momentous.

#3 Verticals Extending into Major League Sports
The pandemic has also shaken the world of major league sports, but even before COVID, sports was struggling to increase revenues and to piggyback on the lucrative eSports world that has become a major part of everyday life. Again, Facedrive is there... with another celebrity-studded acquisition.
In August, Facedrive acquired Tally Technologies, the high-tech major league sports predicting startup founded by NFL superstar Russel Wilson Tally came out of TraceMe, a celebrity content app founded by Wilson with early-in investors from the biggest tech companies in the world and acquired by Nike last year. Tally plans to add another dimension to major league sports with "gamification" and online fan engagement by making it free-to-play ... and predictive.

#4 Multiple Verticals in an Entire Tech-Driven ESG Ecosystem
Facedrive isn't just challenging Uber in the ride-sharing space. It's got an impressive collection of ESG offerings in a single tech-driven ecosystem:
It's all about carbon-neutral footprints, sustainability, healthy social distancing and even contributing on the front lines of the pandemic.
-- FaceDrive and HiRide--Environmentally-friendly ride-sharing and long-distance carpooling
-- Facedrive Health: Carbon-neutral pharma deliveries and government-endorsed COVID contact-tracing with TraceScan
-- Facedrive Marketplace, with celebrity co-branded exclusive clothing focused on sustainably sourced materials
-- Facedrive Foods carbon-neutral food delivery platforms
-- Social distancing trivia platform, HiQ, with over 2,000,000 app downloads
Facedrive's acquisition earlier this of Foodora Canada was another challenge to Uber, which belatedly realized that its profits would depend on delivery. Foodora isn't just any food delivery company--it previously was a subsidiary of the $20-billion multinational food delivery service Delivery Hero, which operates in over 40 countries and services more than 500,000 restaurants.

#5 ESG At Its Best
Facedrive, is one of the biggest things to emerge from Ontario's 'Technology Triangle', also called "Waterloo". It's not only Canada's answer to Silicon Valley, but it's also fast growing as a startup tech hub.
Facedrive launched in Q3 2019, and already we're looking at constant news flow and a string of smart acquisitions--all leading to global expansion plans. The deal timeline has been so fast-paced that's it's hard to keep up.
From Will Smith to Exelon to Air Canada and Superbowl star Russel Wilson, Facedrive is becoming a household name with celebrity-studded acquisitions that all that make for a steady stream of news flow. And it's all targeting to fit the needs of $119 trillion in Big Capital that's scrambling for somewhere to park its sustainability funds.
BlackRock (BLK) is the world's most significant global investment manager. It has well over $7.4 trillion in assets under management, and clients in over 100 different countries. It has played a vital role in shifting investors' perspectives in the ESG field.
In 2017, BlackRock underwent a major shift in its investment strategy, prioritizing stocks with high ESG ratings. BlackRock's focus on technology and sustainability has fueled the new trend in the marketplace, pushing even more investors to consciously consider where they put their money.
Tech giants across the board are diving head-first into the sustainability push. Facebook Social media giant Facebook (FB) is doing its part, as well. Not only have they made dramatic progress towards their goal to run on 100% renewable energy by the end of 2020, they're working to build more water-efficient data centers. In fact, their data centers use 80 percent less water than typical data centers.
Facebook has even gone a step further with its focus on building more sustainable workplaces. It's building designs incorporate a number of renewable energy sources and water recycling methods, in addition to promoting the recycling and sustainability of all products consumed on site.
Microsoft (MSFT) is one of the most innovative and well-known companies within the tech sector, but its Windows platform is the most widely used operating system on the planet. First launched in 1985, Windows has shaped what is expected from a personal home computer.
But Microsoft is appealing to investors for more just its Windows platform. It is diving head first into an entirely new market. With key partnerships utilizing and implementing blockchain technology, the company's upside could have huge potential as the tech takes off.
Not only has it always been on the cutting edge of innovation, it's taking a serious stance on the climate crisis. In fact, it's pushing so hard that it is aiming to be carbon NEGATIVE by 2030. That's a huge pledge. And if anyone can do it, it's Microsoft.
Not to be outdone, Google (GOOGL) is jumping on the green bandwagon, as well. It's focus is on raising the bar for smarter and more efficient use of the world's limited resources. It is building sustainable, energy-efficient data centers and workplaces. It is also harnessing artificial intelligence to utilize energy more efficiently.
Despite being one of the largest companies on the planet, in many ways it has lived up to its original "Don't Be Evil" slogan. Not only is Google powering its data centers with renewable energy, it is also on the cutting edge of innovation in the industry, investing in new technology and green solutions to build a more sustainable tomorrow. It's bid to reduce its carbon footprint has been well received by both younger and older investors. And as the need to slow down climate change becomes increasingly dire, it's easy to see why.
Even Big Oil supermajors have been diving head first into the ESG trend, diversifying their portfolios and to hedge their bets in the rapidly changing new reality of energy. And no other oil major takes this more seriously than Total (TOT). maintains a 'big picture' outlook across all of its endeavors. It is not only aware of the needs that are not being met by a significant portion of the world's growing population, it is also hyper-aware of the looming climate crisis if changes are not made. In its push to create a better world for all, it has committed to contributing to each of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals.
Total checks every box in the ESG checklist. It is promoting diversity and safety, making massive changes in its day to day operations to ensure that its business is environmentally sound, and has even committed to going carbon neutral by 2050 or sooner. It's no surprise that shareholders are loving its forward-thinking approach.

How lap times in different motorsports compare to each other

If you are a motorsports fan like me, you probably wondered, how fast the many different cars and classes are in relation to each other. While thinking about this question, I quickly realised that it is a near impossible task to measure this, you can’t compare cars from different series unless they share the track at the same point in time, which rarely happens. But still, I wanted to know, how the different classes compare to each other within their limitations (be it from the rules or from the conditions), in other words, which cars could go faster than others and by how much. To measure this, I chose the superior method of comparing lap times: percentages. (On a side note, I honestly don’t understand why teammates are always compared in tenths over the season, like saying X was on average 4 tenths slower than Y. This is just dumb, let’s all switch to percentages! Four tenths around Red Bull Ring is different than four tenths around Le Mans.)
Check out my new post on ranking historic sports car prototypes if you're interested.

TL;DR List

For the extremely busy, very unceremoniously and without additional commentary (as that comes later in this post), these are all the important racing classes with their regulations as of 2019:

Formula 1 (100-104.3%)
Super Formula (108-111%) LMP1 (112-114%) Indycar (112.5-115%) Formula 2 (114-117%)
GT500 (117-120%) DPi (118.5-122%) LMP2 WEC (118-125%)
Formula 3 (122-126.5%) DTM (123.5-126.5%) LMP2 IMSA (123-126%)
GT300 (129-134%) GTLM IMSA - GTE WEC (130-138%) LMP3 (130-134.5%)
MotoGP (132-139%) GT3 - GTD (134-140%) Australian Supercars (136.5-142%) Formula E (134-140%)
Moto2 (140-144%) NASCAR Cup (141.5-144%)
NASCAR Xfinity (144-146%)
GT4 IMSA (145-150%)
TCR (146.5-153%) NGTC (147-149%)
GT4 SRO (149-155%) Moto3 (149-155%)

Method

What I did can be described very simply, I looked up the fastest qualifying laps, of each series/class here on a bunch of tracks all around the world. Then I started comparing. First, if there was a direct comparison to F1, I calculated the percentage averages. Then, I started cross-referencing to other series which were active on most of the tracks (mainly GT3 and TCR) and calculated back to F1. There are some problems with this method. I can’t be 100% sure that for example GTD and GT3 have similar pace, or that TCR in Europe and TCR in Japan have similar pace. But with these two classes, the differences are not that big, which allowed me to have a more or less clear picture. After that I estimated the percentage range and made it bigger, because track conditions and other factors could mean up to 1-2% in lap time (this was the most “subjective” part). Because of the big ranges, I will always provide the direct comparison to F1 if there is one.

Why are there ties?

Many classes were surprisingly close to each other regarding their percentage ranges, despite (or maybe because) they rarely race on the same track. This led to some three- or four-way ties. In those ties I tried to rank them, based on feeling and direct comparisons. The classes could be in a different order within those ties if they raced in similar conditions, we can never be sure. Which leads me to the final boring paragraph I promise.

What factors influence lap time?

• Drivers, especially in series where there are pro and amateur drivers
• Qualifying and race formats: how much fuel is in the car; do you have to start with the fuel load; is it an endurance series; is it a one-lap shootout or is it the average of all drivers, do you have to negotiate around lower class cars; does your engine need to last another 5 races or 24 hours etc.
• Tires, very important, explains differences between GT500 & DTM or GT300 & GT3, think about how much faster F1 would be if the softest of the five compounds was available everywhere
• Performance Ballasts (BoP, EoT etc.), can be very severe (e.g. in LMP1 it is up to 2%)
• Track Conditions, very important even in a single session, as the track constantly changes
• AiTemperature conditions

Lap Time Percentage Ranking

1 Formula 1
I referenced all percentages to Formula 1 because it is obviously the fastest motorsport in the world. The pinnacle of motorsport (like it or not, it is the pinnacle) has mind bending machines, which produce enormous amount of downforce, have incredibly efficient and powerful engines and in the words of George Russell “ridiculous” brakes. On the note of Russell, I calculated the average percentage difference of the faster car of the slowest team to the pole time: 104.3% (side-note: it was surprisingly not always Williams, in Hungary, both Racing Points were beaten by a Williams).
To give you another example about percentages: the slowest team in recent history HRT had a 109% lap time on their worst days.
Just in case you forgot how an F1 car looks: 2019 Mercedes W10

2.1 Super Formula (108-111%)
direct comparison: 109.3%
Super Formula (formerly called Formula Nippon) is the top racing series in Japan and is the second fastest open-wheeled motorsport in the world. They race on Japanese circuits only, which gives us few direct comparisons to big international series (Suzuka with F1 and Fuji with WEC). It has a spec chassis and two engine manufacturers (Honda and Toyota). The new car, introduced in 2019 was to the tenth as fast as an LMP1 car in Fuji, but edges the class on direct comparison with F1 at Suzuka.
this is how the Dallara SF19 looks like in the hands of last year’s champion Nick Cassidy

2.2 LMP1 (112-114%)
direct comparison: 112.7%
On to the fastest non open-wheeled series, the next fastest cars are the magnificent sports car prototypes of the World Endurance Championship. This class has produced many great hybrid cars since 2014 from Porsche, Audi and Toyota, which battled at the 24h of Le Mans. Unfortunately, in the later years, only Toyota remained with a hybrid LMP1 and their car now competes against the privateer LMP1s of Rebellion. LMP1 beats both F2 and Indycar on direct comparison. If there is one class which could go much faster, it has to be the hybrid LMP1 Toyotas. The WEC introduced the fancy-named Equality of Technology, which basically should slow down the hybrids to the privateer speeds. Unfortunately, it actually means that the Toyotas go 2.5s per lap slower than they could and lose 1s per lap to the non-hybrid Rebellions at COTA. Because of that, the lap records are from 2016-17, when Audi and Porsche still were on the stage, pushing each other to greater and greater speeds.
this is the 2020 Toyota TS050 Hybrid, you won’t see this car for long on track because in the near future, there will be new prototype regulations

2.3 Indycar (112.5-115%)
direct comparison: 114.6%
The premier North American open-wheeled racing series would certainly be unbeatable on ovals, but on road courses, they are edged out by a few series. Again, like with SF, Indycar only races in a specific region and few tracks are visited by big international series, but they finally gave us a direct comparison with Formula 1 at COTA. This series also has a spec chassis (also by Dallara) and since 2018 a universal aero kit. There are two engine manufacturers: Honda and Chevrolet.
this is how the Dallara DW12 looks like in the hands of last year’s champion Josef Newgarden

2.4 Formula 2 (114-117%)
direct comparison: 115.8%
Finally, the slowest series in this four-way tie is the top feeder series for F1. This is a series, where young drivers can finally be part of the F1 paddock by racing in support races on the same weekend with the big ones. There is no direct comparison with Indycar and through cross-referencing it is still impossible to tell which one would be faster. The series employs a spec chassis by (again you guessed it) Dallara and has one engine manufacturer (Mecachrome). This series is more about the drivers, because it should find the best of the talents looking to get into F1.
this is how the Dallara F2 2018 looks like in the hands of last year’s champion Nyck De Vries

3.1 GT500 (117-120%)
direct comparison: 119.8%
The grand touring beasts populating the top class in the Japanese SUPER GT series are astonishingly quick. These race cars are the fastest production-based cars right now (well at least they kinda look like a production car) and can put some prototype classes to shame with their lap times. They beat the WECs LMP2s in Fuji but have unfortunately few other direct comparisons with similar classes. There are currently three manufacturers competing in GT500: Nissan, Toyota/Lexus and Honda. Recently, GT500 and DTM aligned their rules to be able to compete in each other’s series, which led to the Class One cars, as they are called now. While the chance of seeing DTM cars in SUPER GT and vice versa is low, it provides a great opportunity to see how tires influence car performance, as GT500 (having a tire war with 4 manufacturers) is clearly faster on track than DTM.
this is how the Lexus LC 500 GT500 championship winning car looked like in 2019

3.2 DPi (118.5-122%)
no direct comparison
The Daytona Prototype International class is the top prototype class in the IMSA United Sports Car Championship and has the honours to be the second fastest prototype class. It was introduced in 2017 alongside the new LMP2 regulations and became a separate class in the championship in 2019. This is the first class which had no direct comparisons to F1, but it is clearly faster than the WECs LMP2 class at Sebring. It is quite interesting in the sense that despite having four manufacturers (Cadillac, Acura, Mazda and Nissan) the cars used are based on four other LMP2 chassis (Dallara, Oreca, Riley and Ligier).
this is how the Acura ARX-05 2019 championship winning car looked like

3.3 LMP2 WEC (118-125%)
direct comparison: 120%
The second class in the WEC is a very popular one, with many privateer teams battling it out for LMP2 honours. The class is also used in the European Le Mans Series with similar specifications. The class was overhauled and redefined in 2017, four exclusive chassis manufacturers were appointed (the ones from DPi), a closed cockpit was mandated and there is a spec Gibson engine. The current cars and rule concepts are the basis, together with the DPis for the future LMDh regulations. It comfortably beats the 4th placed Formula 3 cars on direct comparison.
this is how the championship winning Oreca 07 by United Autosport looked like in 2019

4.1 Formula 3 (122-126.5%)
direct comparison: 123.6%
The third tier in the world of Formula 1 is the lowest which has a worldwide championship. It is one stage under Formula 2 and replaced GP3 in 2019. This change of name and structure also came with a new Dallara chassis and a spec Mecachrome engine. As you may have noticed, I only looked at the FIA Formula 3 Championship, and not at other regional or national series.
this is the Dallara F3 2019 driven by Robert Shwartzman, the 2019 champion

4.2 DTM (123.5-126.5%)
direct comparison: 124.9%
The cars used in the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters are called touring cars only for historic reasons. These cars are silhouette cars, meaning actually purpose-built machines using a body which resembles (slightly) to their road going counterparts. Although it is a series competing in Europe (mainly Germany with some few races in other places), it actually shares few circuits with faster series, so there is no direct comparison to the WEC or the ELMS or even Formula 3. So, it is hard to call which one would be faster. This should be changed with the DTM set to race at ~~Monza~~ (Edit: now it looks like they go to Spa) in the 2020 season. The DTM is as mentioned before the sister series of SUPER GT, which gives a perspective of how much faster these cars could go. Unfortunately, the future of the series doesn’t look too bright with only one manufacturer left after the end of this season, there’s a big chance that we won’t see these great cars in the future.
this is the Audi RS5 Turbo DTM_FP1.jpg&tbnid=VulVzwUeOXs-QM&vet=1&docid=EJNx6BNH9-qE1M&w=2560&h=1706&q=rene+rast+dtm+2019&source=sh/x/im) of champion Rene Rast in 2019

4.3 LMP2 IMSA (123-126%)
no direct comparison
The second class in North American sports car racing is a little bit slower than their WEC counterparts. This is also visible at the direct comparison at Sebring. The reasons for this could be that the LMP2s in IMSA were slowed down to create a bigger gap to the very similar DPi cars. Other features are exactly the same than in the WEC, the only difference being that there were only two entries in 2019.

5.1 GT300 (129-134%)
direct comparison: 132.7%
I think the Japanese like to show the world how fast some cars actually could go. GT300 is the lower class in SUPER GT, it consists mainly of GT3 cars from European manufacturers but also JAF-GT cars, which are just a Japanese GT class. What is surprising is how easily the GT300 cars beat their European GT3 counterparts and even the WEC GTE class is beaten fair and square at Fuji.
here is the Honda NSX GT3 Evo, last year’s championship winning machine

5.2 GTLM IMSA - GTE WEC (130-138%)
direct comparison: 132.6%
Now to the supposedly highest level of GT racing, which actually is beaten by two and pressured by a third one. GTE in WEC/ELMS or GTLM in IMSA is in all three championship the top GT class. The GTLMs beat the GTEs at Sebring but I still decided to take both together because they are very similar in performance. These cars are awesome, look awesome and I suspect could produce much better lap times, but especially in Europe, they are sometimes even beaten by the top GT3 cars. There are now five different manufacturers competing in the WEC and IMSA combined.
this is the Porsche 911 RSR which won in IMSA and WEC in 2019

5.3 LMP3(130-134.5%)
direct comparison: 132.7%
LMP3 is the lowest prototype class, which is more thought as an entry level for drivers and teams to prototype racing. It is used in the ELMS, Asian LMS and the IMSA Prototype Challenge. In Europe it beats the GTEs marginally and in North America it is beaten by GTLM marginally, so the actual difference between GTE and LMP3 is too close to call. There are five cars available and all have the same spec engine.
This is a Ligier JS P3 which won in the ELMS in 2019

6.1 MotoGP (132-139%)
direct comparison: 135.1%
There are two groups in motorsports which I consider the craziest. Those who jump into their small hatchbacks and rip through some forests or mountains on roads barely wider than the car itself and those who jump on a bike which can go with 360kph and you can touch the ground with your knees while negotiating corners. MotoGP is astonishingly quick, sometimes even beating GT3 race cars. There are six manufacturers currently competing in MotoGP with purpose built mororcycle prototypes.
This is last year’s MotoGP winner Marc Marquez and his Honda RC213V

6.2 GT3 - GTD (134-140%)
direct comparison: 136.9% - 135.4%
On to the arguably most widely used racing class right now: GT3. There are a lot of different championships using these cars, and there have been 51 cars homologated since its inception in the mid 2000s. The highest-level series using GT3s are the SRO sanctioned GT World Challenges (formerly Blancpain Series) and the IMSA Sports Car Championship with the name GTD. On top of that there are countless national championships, so it’s hard to actually say how fast GT3s are, because they race at so many places. Sometimes they beat GTE in Europe, they play a secondary role to GTLM in IMSA, sometimes they barely beat Australian Supercars. The interesting thing in GT3 is the variety of car styles, types, engines and the fact that all these different philosophies are tied together through Balance of Performance which equals out all the cars.
here is the Bentley Continental GT3 which won the last international GT3 race, the Bathurst 12h

6.3 Australian Supercars (136.5-142%)
direct comparison: 141.4%
The (maybe not so hidden) gem in motorsport is the Australian Supercars Championship (also known as V8 Supercars), it evolved from the Australian Touring Car Championship and has really fun to watch and actually pretty fast race cars from Holden and Ford (with sometimes other manufacturers coming and going). It is close to the Australian GT Championship lap time wise, but is a bit slower than GT3s at Bathurst, where a big international GT3 race happens every year. There are otherwise few meaningful comparisons to other series. Unfortunately, there are some doubts over its future, with the car brand Holden no longer active.
this is the Ford Mustang GT of Scott McLaughlin, last year’s champion

6.4 Formula E (134-140%)
direct comparison (manually measured with a youtube onboard): 134%
The premier electric racing series in the world is notably famous for racing on unusual (controversial?) tight circuits located in city centres. Because of that, there is only one proper comparison with another class (TCR at Marrakech) and you can kinda guess their time in Monaco’s last sector while watching an onboard and measuring it with a stopwatch. So based on this data, we can estimate that their speed is somewhere around GT3 and Supercars. Of course, Formula E is very strong on its own circuits but would lose to everybody at Bathurst, just like a Supercar couldn’t negotiate the Paris Circuit fast enough. We can only hope, that the championship with the highest manufacturer involvement goes to the full Monaco layout for a proper comparison. The car currently used is the 2nd Gen FE car, it has a spec chassis and battery but individual powertrains.
here is the DS Techeetah of 2019 champion Jean-Eric Vergne

7.1 Moto2 (140-144%)
direct comparison: 142.8%
The second tier motorcycle championship also comes in at a kind of no-mans land between Supercars and NASCAR. Unfortunately, I don’t know much more about Moto2 so
here is last years champion Alex Marquez with his Kalex Moto2 bike

7.2 NASCAR Cup Series (141.5-144%)
no direct comparison
The most popular form of motorsport in the US, NASCAR is centred around oval track racing. So much in fact, that its calendar only has two road courses (Watkins Glen and Sonoma). On top of that, to make direct comparisons even rarer, they use different layouts to Indycar and IMSA at both tracks. That leaves us with cross-referencing the Cup Series to its minor league, which leads to the conclusion that NASCAR is tied with Moto2 on pace and just edged out by Australian Supercars, which some consider to be kind of similar (very far reached imo) to it. credit to u/TacoHVAC for the laptimes
here is the 2019 Toyota Camry of cup series champion Kyle Busch

8 NASCAR Xfinity (144-146%)
no direct comparison
Fortunately, NASCAR’s minor league, the Xfinity series goes to two of road courses using common layouts (Road America and Mid-Ohio) so we can at least compare these cars to other classes on this list. The Xfinity cars are a bit slower than their Cup Series counterparts, and with that, they are far from GT3 and Supercars, but comfortably ahead of GT4.
this is the Chevrolet Camaro of 2019 champion Tyler Reddick

9 GT4 IMSA (145-150%)
direct comparison: 146.3%
We arrived at the slowest GT class, GT4 is widely used in some national championships. In North America, the Michelin Pilot Challenge is a support series of the IMSA Sports Car Championship and there you can see GT4 competing as the top class against TCR, which explains why the IMSA GT4s are faster than their European brothers and sisters.
this is the Audi R8 LMS GT4 which won last year’s Michelin Pilot Challenge

10.1 TCR (146.5-153%)
direct comparison: 149.9%
The most widely used touring car class was approved in 2014 and fully took over the touring car world in 2018, when the World Touring Car Championship also adopted the regulations. These cars are “true” touring cars, with many standardised parts and a performance ballast system to ensure fair competition. There are many manufacturers and twice as many series, with nearly every region having their own TCR championship. All the results from these championship count towards the TCR Model of the Year “championship” which is handed out since 2017. TCR provided a very constant basis for other lap time calculations (especially for the Japanese series), because it is so widely used and has universal rules. In Europe it beats GT4 very consistently.
here is the Hyundai i30 N TCR driven by World Touring Car champion Norbert Michelisz

10.2 NGTC (147-149%)
no direct comparison
One of the few places where TCR isn’t the main touring car class is of course the British Touring Car Championship. They have their own cars, called Next Generation Touring Cars, which have most likely a very similar performance than TCR. I say most likely, because there are not that many international series competing on some lesser known British tracks, so I used the British GT Championship (GT3) as a reference for NGTCs.
this is the BMW 330i M Sport driven by 2019 champion Colin Turkington

11.1 GT4 SRO (149-155%)
direct comparison: 151.9%
Finally, we are at the bottom of this list with the GT4 cars competing in various national and European SRO series. These cars are by no means slow, they beat road going hyper cars like the Koenigsegg One:1 or the McLaren P1 at Spa, which just shows how incredibly fast race cars are, even if they are slow (if that makes sense).
the final car on here is the BMW M4 GT4, winner of the 2019 GT4 European Series

11.2 Moto3 (149-155%)
direct comparison: 152.3%
The lowest class in motorcycle grand prix racing has about the same speeds as GT4. Generally you can say, that the different motorcycle tiers are much closer to each other than F1 - F2 - F3 are.
this is the Honda NSF250RW Moto3 winning machine

That’s the end of the list. As you can imagine it was quite fun to research everything, but it also took a long time. Please correct any typos and feel free crosspost.
What comes next? I plan on doing something similar but for historic classes and look if somebody could challenge F1 for the throne in the past (my bet is on Group C or 70s Can-Am).
Edits: Due to popular request, I added some motorcycle classes, also corrected some technicalities about NASCAR tracks

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How lap times in different motorsports compare to each other

TL;DR List

Method

Why are there ties?

What factors influence lap time?

Lap Time Percentage Ranking

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